Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in ‘Scholars Without Borders’

‘Scholars Without Borders’ is a site maintained by a group of academics based in New Delhi, and teaching and studying at Jawaharlal Nehru University. They give news about academic books published in India. It carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

“This is a good book to have had this summer… maybe. As the monsoon remains elusive and I sit sweltering in the Delhi heat and humidity, a book who’s title caught my eye is R R Kelkar’s Monsoon Prediction, from B S Publications, Hyderabad.

“Describing the book, Professor Kelkar says ‘The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.’

“He should know. Having retired as Director General of the Meterological Department, Kelkar has written a book on Satellite Meterology as well. ‘Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed the monsoon.

“The book discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.

“.…. Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.”

“Point taken.”

Kalidasa – Kavee kee Shastradnya

An article in Marathi by Prof R R Kelkar entitled “Kalidasa – Kavee kee Shastradnya” was published in the Marathi newspaper “Sakal” from Pune on 23 June 2009.

Click here to read

Global Cooling Continues Since 1998

The year 2008 was the coolest year since 2000, according to the analysis made by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), but it was still in the top ten warmest years since 1880. However, given the range of uncertainty in the temperature measurements, 2008 stands somewhere between the seventh and the tenth warmest year on record.

Compared to the baseline period 1951-80, large areas of central and eastern Pacific Ocean were cooler, and temperatures in the United States were not much different. Eastern Europe, Russia, the Arctic, and the Antarctic Peninsula were however comparatively warmer.

The relative coolness of 2008 is being attributed to a persistent La Niña, a delay in the start of the next sunspot cycle, and volcanic eruptions in the Aleutian Islands.

(Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36699)

Love in a Changing Climate

Climate change is affecting all aspects of life on earth. It will not be surprising if the current market ‘meltdown’ is attributed by someone to global ‘warming’. So can love remain an exception? Here is a song from the Hindi movie Talaash (2003) in which Kareena Kapoor and Akshay Kumar say to each other: “Friend, don’t change like the climate”…

Kareena:
Armaanon ke is gulshan mein
Tum aaye ho saawan ki tarha
Yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
O mere yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
Akshay:
Tum kya jaano, mere dil mein
Tum rehti ho dhadkan ki tarha
Yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
O mere yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
Kareena:
Saagar ke sang laher kiran
Sooraj ke saath mein chalti hai
Shamma hamesha parwaane ki chaahat mein hi jalti hai
Akshay:
Ho, phool mein khushboo rehti hai
Aur seep mein moti rehta hai
Tera mera hoga milan dharti se ambar kehta hai
Kareena:
Mere honton pe rehna har dam
Saazon mein chhupi sargam ki tarha
Yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
O mere yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
Kareena:
Milke juda ab hone se
Dil kyoon darrta hai khone se
Haan, milke juda ab hone se
Dil kyoon darrta hai khone se
Akshay:
Main tere saath mein ab rahoonga sada
Maine li hai kasam, hai mera faisla
Aakhri saans tak hum na honge juda
Kareena:
Yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
O mere yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
Akshay:
Tum kya jaano, mere dil mein
Tum rehti ho dhadkan ki tarha
Yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
O mere yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
Kareena:
Sarkaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha
Dekho yaar badal na jaana mausam ki tarha

Climate Change and India: A Holistic View

Global warming and climate change are issues that are in the forefront today. However, many questions are frequently asked, such as:

u Are we really sure about climate change?

u What exactly is at stake?

u Is it more economics than science?

u How much of it is political?

u Are we fighting a war with nature?

u What is it that we are not talking about?

There are basically three broad aspects of climate change within which there are finer aspects:

u Scientific: Observation, understanding, modelling and prediction

u Socio-economic: Impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation

u Political: Exploitation and protection

It is now established that global temperature has increased from 1850 to 2007. There has been a continuous warming trend since 1976. It is also important to note that 1998 was the warmest year and there has been no further warming since 1998. However, there are many uncertainties in our knowledge of the earth’s climate because:

u Scientific meteorological records are very short compared to the climate scale

u What we know of the earth’s climate prior to the year 1800 is only interpretative

u What we know about the climate after 1800 is subject to error

u There is a lack of data over oceans and uninhabited areas

In 1901-2000, global warming was 0.6 °C but the likely error is of the order of ±0.2 °C.

The cause of global warming can be traced to the fact that the earth’s atmosphere is a mixture of gases: Nitrogen 78 %, Oxygen 21 %, Argon 0.9 %, and Carbon dioxide, Water vapour, Methane, Ozone, etc 0.1%. It is this 0.1 % part of the atmosphere that participates in the transfer of heat and controls temperature. Carbon dioxide, Water vapour, Methane, Nitrous oxide, etc, are called Green House Gases (GHGs) because they trap the heat that is emitted by the earth, in a manner similar to a greenhouse.

From 1750 to 2005, the concentration of Carbon dioxide, the most important GHG, has increased from 280 to 379 ppm on account of fossil fuel use and land-use change. Methane has increased from 715 to 1774 ppb because of agriculture, particularly rice cultivation. Nitrous oxide has gone up from 270 to 319 ppb due to use of fertilizers. Aerosols are another driver of climate change. They are particulate matter in the atmosphere which reflect, absorb or scatter radiation and cool or warm the atmosphere. They have an effect on clouds and precipitation and their influence on the earth’s climate is known to be significant but it is not understood completely.

If we are asked whether we fully understand all the causes of global warming, the honest answer would be “No!” The solar constant is 1366 w m^-2 and the human-induced forcing is somewhere between 0.6 and 2.4 w m^-2. So we are dealing with extremely small quantities whose error bars are as high as, or even higher than, their own values.

It is often asked that when we cannot forecast tomorrow’s weather with certainty, how can we predict the climate 50 or 100 years from now? Here the answer is “Yes, we can.” The reason is that while weather consists of rapidly changing processes in the atmosphere, climate is a combination of several slowly evolving processes: Atmospheric, oceanic, biological, geological, geophysical and bio-geo-chemical. The climate system has its own internal dynamics and external forcings as well human-induced forcings.

If we are to make an attempt at predicting the climate a century ahead, there is no other way but to construct a mathematical model. A climate model is a representation of the climate system as a set of equations which can be solved. It gives us a physical insight into the sensitivity of climate to various factors and it can be used to visualise future climate scenarios. Climate models can be very simple or very complex and they are of different types like: Atmospheric General Circulation Models, Ocean General Circulation Models, carbon cycle models and atmospheric chemistry models. There are global and regional models. However, there is no single climate model that can tell us everything. We need to run several models and each climate model serves only a certain purpose. It is not good for other purposes and the results of a climate model should not be applied to what is beyond its scope.

While interpreting the results of climate models the following aspects must be taken into consideration:

u Many of the climate processes are yet not fully understood (for example, aerosols)

u Some of the known processes cannot be accurately parameterised in models (for example, cloud formation and rain)

u All the data required by the models may not be available (either in quality and quantity)

u Models are compelled to make some or several assumptions

u Depending upon the assumptions made, different conclusions can be reached

u It is extremely difficult to model human behaviour and predict it over the next 50 or 100 years

It is also necessary to distinguish between climate predictions and climate projections. The projections are based upon what are called storylines and scenarios. Storylines consist of scenarios and scenario families, and a scenario is a plausible representation of the future concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The scenarios differ widely as per the various assumptions made by them about world carbon emissions, population growth, GDP and energy consumption. Climate projections are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. Projections of global temperature rise up to 2100 are of the order of 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the low emission B1 scenario and 2.4 to 6.4°C for the high emission A1FI scenario.

It is vital for us to know how global warming could affect India and particularly our monsoon. An important observational fact is that the current rate of warming is relatively higher over the northern hemisphere (land) than the southern hemisphere (ocean). This implies a stronger land-sea thermal gradient which drives the Indian monsoon. According to one climate model, the temperature projections for 2071-2100 indicate warming all over the country and the warm areas are likely to become warmer. Wet areas could get wetter, and dry areas drier. However, global climate model simulations for 2100 monsoon differ widely.

It is a reassuring fact that All-India monsoon rainfall has not shown any increasing or decreasing trend so far. However, the anomalies in the monsoon rainfall do have an effect on India’s food grain production and GDP growth rate. The monsoon continues to be India’s only source of water and the extent of the irrigated area of the country is limited.

Sea level rise is going to be an outcome of global warming. It is also vital to know about this, as India has a 7500 km long coastline and many big and small islands. Coastal zone management becomes very important in the context of climate change. It is necessary to have a regulation of land use, proper planning of development activities, e.g, new ports, industries, etc, protection from increased flooding, measures against coastal erosion and conservation of natural ecosystems.

It is essential that we look upon climate projections with objectivity. If they come in the form of scary scenarios we should not get alarmed but examine their basis and credibility before contemplating radical action. We must remember that India has the wettest and driest places on earth, and droughts and floods are not new to us.

For tackling the problem of climate change on the political front, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries. It contains commitments for all Parties. It was ratified by 188 countries as of February 2003. A Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC is held every year since 1995. The last COP was in December 2007 in Bali, Indonesia. The Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC was adopted at COP-3 in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan.

The Kyoto Protocol contains legally binding commitments, but there is no way to enforce them. It covers 6 GHGs (greenhouse gases): CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFC, PFC and SF₆. The two main features of the Kyoto Protocol are

u Carbon trading and

u Clean Development Mechansim (CDM)

The Kyoto Protocol assigned targets to developed countries to reduce their GHG emissions and allowed the developing countries that do not have targets to sell emission reductions to developed countries. The idea was that reduction of emissions should not come in the way of sustainable development and assistance could be provided to developing countries for adopting clean energy and industrial processes.

The Kyoto Protocol comes to an end in 2012 and a successor agreement needs to be worked out. The G8 industrialized countries, together with the +5 developing countries – Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa – are actively involved in the negotiations.

Climate change is a subject of seemingly endless debates and negotiations among climate scientists, political leaders and industry giants. The latest negotiations on climate change were conducted at Accra in August 2008. The next COP-14 is to be held in Poznan, Poland in December 2008 and COP-15 in Copenhagen, Denmark in December 2009.

It would be prudent for us not to rush to conclusions. Climate observations have errors and uncertainties and the science of climate change is not complete but evolving. Climate models have many limitations and we should not stretch them beyond their scope. We should be careful in evaluating the impact of climate change. But most of all, we should not develop a guilt complex. We must realize that we are not the cause of the problem, but we are facing the consequences of a situation created by the industrialized nations. We are entangled in the problem because CO₂ gets freely mixed in the atmosphere.

India’s CO₂ emissions are very low while CO₂ emissions by the U. S. have been continually increasing. We should not overlook the fact that the industrialised world is wasting power over luxury areas like gambling dens, while we do not have even the basic necessities of power and our children have to study in candlelight.

Fighting global warming does not mean that we go back to the dark ages. Nature permits exploitation, it is forgiving and tolerant. Agriculture could be quoted as the most benign example of exploitation of nature by humanity. However, we should not be reckless and we have a responsibility to future generations. Also, we should guard ourselves against political exploitation in the name of climate change.

For India, the future is in solar and wind energy. In the long run it is not going to matter how much electricity we save or how efficiently we use it, because the world will run out of fossil fuels some day in the future any way. India is situated in the tropical belt and it has a definite edge over the developed countries which are in the extra-tropics. We must launch massive research for exploiting solar and wind energy and to make it affordable for generation of electricity, industry and home needs.

In the context of climate change we must not forget that there are several critical problems that humanity is facing: Growing population, illiteracy, poverty, water resources management, drinking water, food security and others. There is much more to life than mere carbon. Let’s put climate change in the proper perspective.

- R R Kelkar

Climate Change – Guidance from the Bible

Does the Bible offer any guidance on issues related to climate change? The answer is yes.

The first verse of the Bible expresses the great story of God’s creation in just ten words: In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth (Genesis 1:1). Later on the Bible reasserts: The heavens declare the glory of God, the skies proclaim the work of his hands (Psalm 19:1), and once again: The earth is the Lord’s and everything in it (Psalm 24:1). There is no ambiguity in the Bible whatever about who owns this earth, it is God.

Immediately after the narration of the sequence of events in the process of creation, the Bible gives a clear indication of the relationship that God wanted to establish between man and nature: God wanted human beings to fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish of the sea and the birds of the air and every living creature that moves on the ground….I give you every seed-bearing plant on the face of the whole earth and every tree that has fruit with seed in it (Genesis 1:28-29). Thus everything in nature was made freely available to man for use and enjoyment. The exploitation of nature by man has God’s sanction.

The Bible is clear again about man’s ownership rights, that he has none. We brought nothing into the world and we can take nothing out of it (1 Timothy 6:6). A man…as he comes so he departs, he takes nothing from his labour that he can carry in his hand (Ecclesiastes 5:14).

Even if one does not believe in the Bible, no human being can possibly stake a claim to the ownership of the earth. Even what we legally own, be it land, material wealth or intellectual property, is ours only in a temporary and relative sense. One of the most famous short stories of Leo Tolstoy had as its title this question: “How much land does a man need?” The answer provided at the end of the story was “six by three”, signifying that a plot of that size would be enough to bury not just a man’s body but also his ambitions and greed.

There are two parables of Jesus (Matthew 21:33-44, 25:14-30) about a master who has to go away leaving his property in charge of servants. The master expects his trusted servants to take care of the property and put it to good use in his absence, but that does not happen. These parables are equally applicable to man’s use of the environment. Man is still free to use all that nature provides and that includes land, oceans and the atmosphere. Nature does not ask for a payment in return for oxygen, water or sunlight which are essential for our remaining alive. However, with this great power to exploit nature, comes an equally great responsibility. When we get something free, we have a choice: we can either be careless and destroy it, or we can be caring and nurture it. It is very clear what God expects us to do, to reap nature’s benefits without being reckless. Man need not bear a feeling of guilt while exploiting nature, but he must be aware of his limits.

Agriculture is perhaps the most legitimate and inoffensive manner of exploitation of nature by man: A man reaps what he sows (Galatians 6:7). The Bible does not always speak of this law in its agricultural context, but it also uses it in a figurative and illustrative way. In another parable (Matthew 13:23), Jesus explained the spread of the word of God in terms of the scattering of seed in different environments and the varying results. Paul advised: Whoever sows sparingly will also reap sparingly, and whoever sows generously will also reap generously (2 Corinthians 9:6).

The law of sowing and reaping, however, is not that linear or straightforward as it appears. One may sow but another may reap (Ecclesiastes 6:2). The race is not to the swift, or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant, or favour to the learned (Ecclesiastes 9:11). On a spiritual plane, Paul likens sowing and harvest to the resurrection of the dead. The body is sown in dishonour, it is raised in glory, it is sown in weakness, it is raised in power (1 Corinthians 43).

The sowing-reaping law does not operate on its own. Paul said, I planted the seed, Apollos watered, but God made it grow (1 Corinthians 3:6). This is an indication that God can and does have the override switch in the process. David wondered in one of his psalms: When I consider your heavens, the work of your fingers, the moon and the stars, which you have set in place, what is man that you are mindful of him, the son of man that you care for him? (Psalm 8:3-4). The truth is that the Maker of heaven and earth does care for each one of us and He does intervene in earthly matters.

It is clear that we have sown carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and we are now reaping the harvest of global warming. Again, like the Teacher of Ecclesiastes, we are experiencing the flaw that while one sows, another reaps. It is the western industrialized nations that have sown carbon dioxide, but it is the poorer developing nations who are reaping the ill-effects through the unified climate system of the earth. And like at many other compelling moments in our lives, we are raising the clichéd question: Where is God and what is he doing? Or is he just a bystander in the climate change process?

There are innumerable instances mentioned in the Bible wherein God has used nature and natural phenomena in a seemingly supernatural manner to accomplish his purposes. But there is no Biblical account of man having brought about climate change. Thus the present episode of anthropogenically induced global warming and climate change has no analogue in the Bible. However, we have this promise of God to reassure us: As long as the earth endures, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night, will never cease…never again will there be a flood to destroy the earth (Genesis 8:22, 9:11). God is certainly mindful of what man is doing to his earth and he will certainly act at the appropriate time and in the appropriate manner in order to keep his promise.

Man’s vision of the future climate is a product of climate models. These models can make projections for the next hundred years or so, on the basis of what are called emission scenarios that reflect varying levels of energy consumption. But the most final and beautiful scenario that the Bible paints before us, is of that heavenly land supplied with boundless energy, watered by the river of life, and lined by the trees of life that will give fruits in due season, and where man will not have to toil anymore (Revelation 21:4,23, 22:1-2).

A Rational View of Climate Change: (2) Global Warming since 1998

The year 1998 is regarded as the earth’s warmest year based upon instrumental observations since 1860. The global surface temperature anomalies (compared to 1961-1990) for the nine years 1998 to 2006 have been as follows:

1998 0.52 °C,

1999 0.26 °C,

2000 0.24 °C,

2001 0.40 °C,

2002 0.45 °C,

2003 0.45 °C,

2004 0.43 °C,

2005 0.48 °C,

2006 0.42 °C

All these figures have an associated uncertainty of ± 0.1 °C which has not decreased in spite of the recent advances in the global atmospheric and oceanic observing systems. It has also remained random and there is no particular bias towards either the plus or minus side which could possibly be removed.

If the 2006 temperature anomaly of 0.42 °C, is compared with the 1998 temperature anomaly of 0.52 °C, the earth may be said to have cooled by 0.1 °C over the last nine years.

If the uncertainties of +0.1 °C or -0.1 °C are applied to both these values with the same sign, this conclusion will remain valid.

If the uncertainties of +0.1 °C or -0.1 °C are applied to the two years with different signs, the earth could be considered to have either cooled by 0.3 °C (0.52+0.1 – 0.42-0.1) over the last nine years, or the earth might have warmed by 0.1 °C (0.52-0.1 – 0.42+0.1) over the same period.

When scientists talk about small quantities and large uncertainties, we must exercise the freedom to form our own opinion. Since 1998, the earth could have been cooling or warming depending upon how we look at the figures.

Temperature anomaly data taken from World Meteorological Organization, World Climate News, June 2007, available online at http://www.wmo.ch/pages/publications/showcase/documents/WCN31_E.pdf

A Rational View of Climate Change: (1) Tropical Cyclones

One of the pre-conditions for the formation of a tropical cyclone is that the ocean should be warm enough (27 deg C or higher). Tropical storms therefore tend to form only over certain ocean basins and in certain preferred seasons where and when this condition could get satisfied. An increase in sea surface temperature brought about by global warming should, logically speaking, lead to enhanced cyclonic activity. However, it should be remembered here that a warm ocean is only one of the pre-conditions for the formation of a tropical cyclone, and not the only one. Tropical storms do not exist by themselves but are embedded in the general atmospheric flow which does influence them a great deal. And it is not only the number of tropical storms that is important, but also the peak intensity that they reach, and the length and orientation of the tracks that they follow. Thus statistical correlations between global warming and the frequency of occurrence of tropical storms cannot be viewed in isolation and without due regard to these other aspects.

Nowadays, whenever there is a major tropical cyclone or hurricane, heightened scientific and media attention gets focused upon global warming as a cause behind the extreme event. Thus Atlantic hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, or the recent Dean, or major typhoons elsewhere, at once result in a “we-told-you-so” stand being taken by climate change enthusiasts. In this context, it is worthwhile to take a look at what tropical cyclone experts from around the world have to say about it. An International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) was organized by the World Meteorological Organization at San Jose, Costa Rica, in November 2006. At the end of the Workshop, the participants issued a statement on the linkage between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones. Since there were 125 delegates from 34 different countries and regions, and since the process was overseen by a committee of the WMO Tropical Meteorology Research Programme TMRP Committee TC2, the statement can be regarded as an authoritative and consensus view of the global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. The statement is remarkably balanced in its approach and findings and it is very categorical in what it says.

First of all, the consensus statement makes it very clear that no individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change. The increasing socio-economic impact that tropical cyclones have been making in recent years is largely because of rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

Another important point that the statement makes is that as of now, no firm conclusions can be drawn about the influence of global warming on tropical cyclones as there is equal evidence both for and against it.

The statement draws attention to the various difficulties in determining accurate long-term trends in the characteristics of tropical cyclones. The observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions could be natural or anthropogenic or both. Methods of estimating wind speeds associated with tropical cyclone have undergone changes in recent years and different practices are followed in different regions. In most regions there are no observations from instrumented aircraft flying into tropical cyclones.

The statement accepts that if the climate continues to warm, some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind speed and rainfall is likely to occur. There is, however, an inconsistency between models which project small changes in wind speed and some observational studies which suggest large changes. Also, how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact may change in the future cannot be foreseen now.

The statement also refers to the increased vulnerability of coastal areas due to cyclone-related storm surge, if the sea level were also to rise because of global warming.

The text of the Summary Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change can be read on the web site of the World Meteorological Organization at http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/arep/tmrp/documents/iwtc_summary.pdf and the text of the complete statement is available at http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/arep/tmrp/documents/iwtc_statement.pdf.