Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in ‘Scholars Without Borders’

‘Scholars Without Borders’ is a site maintained by a group of academics based in New Delhi, and teaching and studying at Jawaharlal Nehru University. They give news about academic books published in India. It carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

“This is a good book to have had this summer… maybe. As the monsoon remains elusive and I sit sweltering in the Delhi heat and humidity, a book who’s title caught my eye is R R Kelkar’s Monsoon Prediction, from B S Publications, Hyderabad.

“Describing the book, Professor Kelkar says ‘The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.’

“He should know. Having retired as Director General of the Meterological Department, Kelkar has written a book on Satellite Meterology as well. ‘Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed the monsoon.

“The book discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.

“.…. Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.”

“Point taken.”

Kalidasa – Kavee kee Shastradnya

An article in Marathi by Prof R R Kelkar entitled “Kalidasa – Kavee kee Shastradnya” was published in the Marathi newspaper “Sakal” from Pune on 23 June 2009.

Click here to read

Kalidasa: The Poet with a Scientist’s Mind

“Meghadoot”, meaning the Cloud Messenger, is a Sanskrit poem of 120 stanzas or slokas, composed by the poet Kalidasa. Briefly, the poem is about a yaksha, who is banished from Alakapuri, takes refuge in Ramgiri, shares his sorrow with a cloud, and requests the cloud to go and tell his beloved in Alakapuri that he is safe. However, Kalidasa has developed this simple theme into a great literary masterpiece of unparalleled beauty. Even after a passage of 1600 years since it was written, Meghadoot continues to captivate the minds of its readers. Rabindranath Tagore, Madhav Julian, Kusumagraj, Shanta Shelke, and many literary stalwarts have translated Meghadoot from Sanskrit into other Indian languages. Kalidasa’s descriptions are so picturesque, that artists have been inspired to paint Meghadoot sloka by sloka. Its translations into several foreign languages have been posted on the internet.

It is said that a poet can see what even the sun does not. There are no limits to a poet’s imagination. Meghadoot, however, stands a class apart from other great poetry, as Kalidasa’s flight of fantasy transcends into the realm of real science which we know today as meteorology. It would be futile to conjecture how or from whom Kalidasa might have acquired his scientific knowledge. Perhaps nature herself was his teacher!

The very first sloka of Meghadoot paints before us a picture of a yaksha, meaning a servant, exiled from his home in Alakapuri, now living in a far away place called Ramgiri, lonely, broken-hearted and worn out, pained by the separation from his beloved. He is counting the remaining days of his sentence. And on the first day of the month of Ashadha, he suddenly notices a cloud, standing alone atop the mountain peak of Ramgiri (“Ashadhasya prathama divase”…sloka 1.1).

Historians are in general agreement that the town presently called Ramtek, near Nagpur, is the location of Kalidasa’s Ramgiri, while Alakapuri might have been in north India somewhere in the Himalayan foothills. It is important to note that the average date of the arrival of the monsoon over the Ramtek region in 400 A. D. was indeed the same as it is today. This is a reassuring fact, particularly in the context of climate change and the doubts that are being expressed about the changes in the monsoon patterns.

Now imagine that Kalidasa’s solitary cloud is standing proudly over the mountain top, overlooking the region around it, announcing the arrival of the monsoon rains to a population that has been suffering from the scorching heat of the prolonged summer. This cloud is spearheading the monsoon front, making sure that the way ahead is clear for the advance of the monsoon. The yaksha looks at this cloud which has such a heavy responsibility (1.3) and pleads with him to undertake an additional task of carrying a message to his beloved (1.4).

The yaksha knows that the cloud is made up of four ingredients: water, wind, electricity and smoke (“Dhoomra jyoti salila marutam sannipatah kva meghah…” 1.5). He is well aware of the different forms of clouds (1.6). Moreover, he also knows that the northern town of Alakapuri, where his beloved is, lies in the path of the monsoon clouds (“Gantavya te vasatiralaka…” 1.7). Today it is known that smoke consists of two types of carbon, organic and black, of which the former helps in cloud formation and the latter absorbs heat. The role of black carbon in global warming is however not yet fully understood. It is mindboggling that Kalidasa should have known about cloud processes in such detail in his times.

In today’s satellite era, it is possible to monitor globally the growth, movement and dissipation of clouds. The average life time of a typical monsoon cloud is at best a few hours. When Kalidasa’s yaksha asked the cloud to go with his message all the way from Ramgiri in central India to Alakapuri in the Himalayan foothills, he seems to be quite aware of this fact. He was sure that one single cloud would not be able to sustain itself along this long journey. So he finds a scientific solution to the problem. He advises the cloud to rest awhile over the several rivers that would have to be crossed on the way and get rejuvenated (“Neetva neelam salilavasanam muktarodhonitambam…” 1.43). The rivers mentioned are Vetravati (1.24), Shipra (1.31), Gambhira (1.42), Ganga (1.53) and others. It is obvious that Kalidasa envisaged a process in which the evaporation from the surface of these large rivers would help in cloud formation and development. Kalidasa’s poetic fantasy and scientific logic go hand in hand to help fulfill the yaksha’s desire. Little research has however been done since Kalidasa’s times till today on how the monsoon is influenced by the rivers that crisscross the Indian subcontinent.

The yaksha thereafter lays down the itinerary of the cloud. He wants the cloud to visit places like Vidisha, Ujjayini and Devgiri, which have great beauty and with which he has strong emotional bonds. He describes them in picturesque detail and entices the cloud to see them. But here again the scientist prevails over the poet and he says that the monsoon winds will surely carry the cloud to the destination (“Mandam mandam nudati pavanaschanukulam yatha twam…” 1.10). The monsoon winds will slowly turn westwards (“Kinchit paschadvraja laghugatirbhuya evottarena…” 1.16). The yaksha is acquainted with the circuitous route of the monsoon and he repeatedly cautions that the cloud must always keep moving to the north (“Vakra pantha yadapi bhavatah prasthitasyottarasham…” 1.27).

At many places, the yaksha tells the cloud to gain height in order to move faster, again suggesting that Kalidasa was aware of the fact that the monsoon winds gathered strength with height, while phenomena such as the tropical easterly jet and the low level jet were discovered by meteorologists only in the last century.

We do not yet have a precise definition of a typical monsoon cloud. But monsoon clouds over northern India are taller than those over peninsular India and are associated with thunder and lightning. At the end of the poem, the yaksha wishes that the cloud and his beloved, the lightning, may never get separated (“Ma bhudevam kshanamapi cha te vidyuta viprayogah…” 2.55).

Kalidasa’s Meghadootam is not only a poem of great beauty but an accurate scientific statement about the monsoon clouds and winds. What Kalidasa wrote about the monsoon 1600 years ago, can be said to be scientifically sound by today’s standards. In some respects, Kalidasa remains ahead of the scientists of the twentyfirst century and they can learn from him and draw inspiration for doing further research in the monsoon.

Prof. R. R. Kelkar
Kalidasa Day, 23 June 2009

Book Review of “Satellite Meteorology” by R. R. Kelkar in WMO Bulletin

The April 2009 issue (Vol 58, No. 2) of the WMO Bulletin published by the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva,  carries this review of the book “Satellite Meteorology” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

Satellite Meteorology

R. R. Kelkar. BS Publications (2007).
ISBN 81-7800-137-3.
xix + 251 pp.
Price: US$ 26

Observing our weather from space—referred to here as satellite meteorology (SM)—has revolutionized our understanding of how the atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere operate and interact as part of a system. By the unique virtue of being global, satellite data have radically transformed the way meteorologists perform numerical weather prediction (NWP). Today, gigabytes of radiances from satellites are routinely assimilated into weather forecast models.

This book traces the fascinating history of satellite meteorology and its application to NWP, starting from the beginning of the space era up to the current state-of-the-art sensors, providing the reader with a comprehensive introduction to remote-sensing, climate monitoring and weather forecasting, with a particular focus on Indian meteorology. In particular, the book covers (and illustrates with nice colour figures) a variety of remote-sensing topics ranging from the orbits of the satellites, the types of radiation they sense, the physical understanding of their measurement and the retrieval of ocean, land and atmospheric parameters, up to the exploitation of their data to study tropical weather systems and constrain, validate and initialize NWP models.

The book constitutes very good material for university students planning a career in physics or Earth sciences, as well as a reference for scientists involved in Earth system research or operational weather prediction, in particular over tropical regions.

The author, R. R. Kelkar, who [was] ISRO Space Chair Professor at the University of Pune, India, has a long experience in satellite meteorology at the India Meteorological Department, and has done a very good job in synthesizing this fast growing field, highlighting its potential,as well as the related challenges and opportunities.

Reviewed by Pierre-Philippe Mathieu

O Worship the King

This hymn written by Robert Grant in 1833 is based on Psalm 104 (see the related post “Praising God for His Creation”

O worship the King
All glorious above;
O gratefully sing
His power and his love:
Our Shield and Defender,
The Ancient of days,
Pavilioned in splendour,
And girded with praise.

O tell of his might,
O sing of his grace,
Whose robe is the light,
Whose canopy space.
His chariots of wrath
The deep thunder-clouds form,
And dark is his path
On the wings of the storm.

This earth, with its store
Of wonders untold,
Almighty, thy power
Hath founded of old:
Hath stablished it fast
By a changeless decree,
And round it hath cast,
Like a mantle, the sea.

Thy bountiful care
What tongue can recite?
It breathes in the air,
It shines in the light;
It streams from the hills,
It descends to the plain,
And sweetly distils
In the dew and the rain.

Frail children of dust,
And feeble as frail,
In thee do we trust,
Nor find thee to fail;
Thy mercies how tender!
How firm to the end!
Our Maker, Defender,
Redeemer, and Friend.

O measureless Might,
Ineffable Love,
While angels delight
To hymn thee above,
Thy humbler creation,
Though feeble their lays,
With true adoration
Shall sing to thy praise.

Praising God for His Creation

Psalm 104 from the Holy Bible (New International Version)

1 Praise the Lord, O my soul.
O Lord my God, you are very great;
you are clothed with splendour and majesty.

2 He wraps himself in light as with a garment;
he stretches out the heavens like a tent

3 and lays the beams of his upper chambers on their waters.
He makes the clouds his chariot
and rides on the wings of the wind.

4 He makes winds his messengers,
flames of fire his servants.

5 He set the earth on its foundations;
it can never be moved.

6 You covered it with the deep as with a garment;
the waters stood above the mountains.

7 But at your rebuke the waters fled,
at the sound of your thunder they took to flight;

8 they flowed over the mountains,
they went down into the valleys,
to the place you assigned for them.

9 You set a boundary they cannot cross;
never again will they cover the earth.

10 He makes springs pour water into the ravines;
it flows between the mountains.

11 They give water to all the beasts of the field;
the wild donkeys quench their thirst.

12 The birds of the air nest by the waters;
they sing among the branches.

13 He waters the mountains from his upper chambers;
the earth is satisfied by the fruit of his work.

14 He makes grass grow for the cattle,
and plants for man to cultivate—
bringing forth food from the earth:

15 wine that gladdens the heart of man,
oil to make his face shine,
and bread that sustains his heart.

16 The trees of the Lord are well watered,  …..

17 There the birds make their nests;
the stork has its home in the pine trees.

18 The high mountains belong to the wild goats;…..

19 The moon marks off the seasons,
and the sun knows when to go down.

20 You bring darkness, it becomes night,
and all the beasts of the forest prowl.

21 The lions roar for their prey
and seek their food from God.

22 The sun rises, and they steal away;
they return and lie down in their dens.

23 Then man goes out to his work,
to his labor until evening.

24 How many are your works, O Lord!
In wisdom you made them all;
the earth is full of your creatures.

25 There is the sea, vast and spacious,
teeming with creatures beyond number—
living things both large and small.

26 There the ships go to and fro, ….

27 These all look to you
to give them their food at the proper time.

28 When you give it to them,
they gather it up;
when you open your hand,
they are satisfied with good things.

29 When you hide your face,
they are terrified;
when you take away their breath,
they die and return to the dust.

30 When you send your Spirit,
they are created,
and you renew the face of the earth.

31 May the glory of the Lord endure forever;
may the Lord rejoice in his works-

32 he who looks at the earth, and it trembles,
who touches the mountains, and they smoke.

33 I will sing to the Lord all my life;
I will sing praise to my God as long as I live.

34 May my meditation be pleasing to him,
as I rejoice in the Lord.

35 ,,,,, Praise the Lord, O my soul.
Praise the Lord.

The Clouds of the Bible (1)

Nephology is a branch of meteorology that deals with clouds. The nephoscope is an instrument used for the observation of clouds and nephometry is the measurement of cloud dimensions. All these terms have been derived from the Greek word ‘nephos’ meaning a cloud. However, they are not very much in vogue these days and cloud physics, cloud dynamics and cloud chemistry are fast evolving as separate domains of scientific research and observation. For the purpose of describing and classifying clouds, latin names like cirrus (thin and feathery), stratus (spread out like sheets), cumulus (like heaps of cotton) or cumulonimbus (tall thunderclouds) have found common usage.

In the Greek New Testament, the word ‘nephos’ occurs only once but its variant ‘nephele’ occurs in 18 places. These words have been interpreted in English translations of the Bible in most places as ‘cloud’ and in rare instances as ‘mist’.

In the New Testament, ‘cloud’ has been used in the literal or meteorological sense in several references. There is an instance of Jesus admonishing the people around him that they knew how to interpret the appearance of the sky, such as a cloud building up on the west meant that it would rain, but they could not see the signs of the times (Luke 12:54-56).

Chapters 11-13 of the Letter to Hebrews, which may be described as a call to faith, remember the deeds of people from Abel to Rahab who stood firm in their faith, lived by faith and died in faith. Besides those mentioned by the author of Hebrews, he was aware that there were other people about whom he did not write. He names this assembly of innumerable anonymous faithful men and women as a ‘cloud of witnesses’ around us (Hebrews 12:1) just as a real cloud in the sky is formed out of millions of water droplets and snow crystals.

An analogy with real clouds is also drawn in two other places in the New Testament, in the context of the nature of ungodly people. They are said to be like mists driven by a storm (2 Peter 2:17) or like clouds carried away by the wind without giving rain (Jude 1:12). These comparisons vividly bring out the dry, empty and purposeless existence of such people.

Apart from the few literal usages mentioned above, all other references to clouds in the New Testament evoke a sense of God’s glory and majesty. It is important to note that the transfiguration of Christ, his ascension into heaven after his resurrection, and his second coming or return to earth, all have an association with clouds.

As per the three accounts of the transfiguration of Jesus Christ (Matthew 17:1-8, Mark 9:2-8 and Luke 9:28-36) Jesus was standing on a mountain with Peter, James and John, when a bright cloud suddenly overshadowed them, and a voice from the cloud said: This is my son, my beloved, on whom my favour rests, listen to him. Jesus’ disciples were terrified when they entered the cloud, such was the glory of its presence.

Acts 1:1-9 tells how forty days after Jesus’ resurrection, he was lifted up and a cloud removed him from the sight of people watching him.

When his life on earth was coming to a close, Jesus had told his disciples that that the Son of Man will return on the clouds of heaven with great power and glory (Matthew 24:30, Mark 13:26). Even in the course of his trial prior to his death, Jesus had claimed before the high priest that the Son of Man would be seen seated at the right hand of God and coming on the clouds of heaven (Matthew 26:64, Mark 14:62). In Revelation 1:7 John reasserts: Behold, he is coming with the clouds and every eye shall see him. At that time the celestial bodies will be shaken and the sun will be darkened. These are obviously not the clouds of precipitation formed out of normal atmospheric processes as we now know them to be, but heavenly spectacles of awe and splendour that would exude the glory of God.

Paul envisioned that it will be a time when the dead and the living will be caught up in the clouds to meet their Lord and be with him forever (1 Thessalonians 4:17). Jesus himself said that angels will gather his chosen from the four winds from the farthest bounds of earth to the farthest bounds of heaven (Matthew 24:31, Mark 13:27). Revelation 14:14-20 has more vivid imagery of this event. It pictures the likeness of a son of man riding a white cloud, wearing a crown of gold and holding a sickle to be put to the earth that is ready for harvest including the grapes of God’s wrath.

In 1 Corinthians 10:1, Paul talks about ‘the pillar of cloud’ which guided the Israelites during their journey to the promised land. I plan to write more of this in a subsequent post about the clouds of the Old Testament.