Filmy Weather (10): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

On 27 July 2005 at 8:30 am, the observatory at Santa Cruz in north Mumbai recorded a rainfall of 94.4 cm during the previous 24 hours, while the Colaba observatory in Mumbai’s southern tip recorded barely 7.3 cm in the same period. Rainfall over Vihar lake was 105 cm, even higher than Santa Cruz. The previous record of heaviest 24-hour rainfall over Mumbai was 58 cm for Santa Cruz and 37 cm for Colaba on 5 July 1974. Comparatively speaking, only Santa Cruz broke the previous record, but for Colaba the rainfall was in no way unusual. However, the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005, as it is now referred to by meteorologists, was unusual in that it affected life in the metropolis in a never-before manner. Hundreds of people lost their lives, drowned by the deluge, fatally trapped in cars, electrocuted, or caught in the debris of collapsing buildings. The rains literally brought the city which never sleeps, to a standstill.

Meteorologists know that such phenomena do occur once in a way and they are called extreme events. But this was perhaps the most extreme of extreme events and it generated an extreme reaction among meteorologists, primarily because it had not been predicted. They held seminars, workshops and brainstorming sessions to analyse every aspect of the situation and to see if the event could somehow have been predicted or if a similar future occurrence could possibly be predicted. Climate change enthusiasts seized it as another opportunity to reinforce their claim that the climate has changed. Environmentalists blamed it all on the neglect of the environment.

It is now the turn of the moviemakers to take a look at the Mumbai rains from their own viewpoint. The Hindi film, Tum Mile, was to have been released on the fourth anniversary of the Mumbai rain event, but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009 when Mumbai had just been recovering from its brush with cyclone Phyan, which thankfully did not cause much damage or loss of life and had dissipated quickly.

Tum Mile begins with a shot of the campus of the University of Cape Town where Sanjana (Soha Ali Khan), is campaigning enthusiastically about the environment and climate change. Just when she is beginning to attract an audience, there is a sudden sharp shower that disperses the listeners and drowns her hopes as well. But in the background is Akshay (Emraan Hashmi), an aspiring painter, who falls in love with her at first sight. The film is full of flashbacks, but if the story is to be straightened out, it is just that their love grows, they decide to live together, and are generally happy, but when it comes to marriage, things begin to break apart and Sanjana and Akshay go their own ways. Six years later, they meet each other by coincidence on a flight to Mumbai, and by coincidence again the day they land in Mumbai happens to be 26 July 2005, the day of the deluge. At Mumbai airport they part ways to do what they have come to Mumbai to do. But they are both stuck in the rains and they do not reach their destinations. Instead they meet on the streets of Mumbai, wade through waist-deep water, rescue other people, and save themselves out of impossible situations. By the time morning breaks, they have rediscovered their lives and their love and stand wondering why they had ever separated at all.

The film begins with the usual disclaimer that the characters in the film are fictitious and that any resemblances are coincidental, etc. But there were two things that struck me hard while watching Tum Mile. One was that throughout the film, which had quite a lot of actual and make-believe footage, it appeared that people in Mumbai on that dreadful day, were fighting their battle with nature almost on their own. There were hardly any shots of the police, fire brigade, or ambulances in action or even in the background.

But apart from that, what struck me more was the perception of the story writer and the director of the film about the meteorological office. In fact, the opening shot of Tum Mile is that of what it called the “Weather Department (Mumbai)”. It shows the staff on duty busy playing carom. The place is dimly lit, but there are computer screens flashing data and images in bright colours. What could be a satellite picture shows an ominous cloud formation. One of the duty staff notices it when he happens to pass by the computer screen, but the others tell him not to worry but concentrate on their game of carom. There is a suggestion of informing the airport, but the idea is dropped. The day would be just another rainy day for Mumbai and nothing unusual was going to happen, is what they all feel. There is a second shot of the “Weather Department (Mumbai)” later in the film, in which the staff is taking a fresh look at the images and data. They are now shown to be amazed by what they see and there is a talk about giving a warning, But by that time, it is too late.

Yes, the legal disclaimer in the film says that any resemblances are purely coincidental, but it would be worthwhile for meteorologists to ponder about what people think of them and their forecasts in today’s world with its advanced technology, apart from the jokes and cartoons that have always been there about them.

– R R Kelkar

22 November 2009

Filmy Weather (9): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

The Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005 spawned several investigations by meteorologists, particularly modellers, to find out the reasons behind this most extreme of extreme events, and to attempt to somehow predict it even in hindsight. It is now the turn of moviemakers to take up this event and make a different kind of story out of it.

“Tum Mile” is a new Hindi movie based upon the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005. It was to be released on its fourth anniversary but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009. As chance would have it, while I am writing this blog on 11 November, Mumbai is under the threat of a cyclone and is already experiencing heavy rains! So the postponed movie release is also well-timed!

“Tum Mile”, directed by Kunal Deshmukh, stars Emraan Hashmi and Soha Ali Khan in lead roles. The story is about two ex-lovers who meet again after a gap of six years. They happen to be on the same flight back to Mumbai, and get there only to see the city going through its worst times, with the highest rainfall in history, and they are forced to stick together in this time of crisis. As the metropolis copes with its nightmare, they also struggle with their own situation, and come to terms with their own lives.

R. R. Kelkar

11 November 2009

Tornado over India

Tornadoes rarely occur over India, but they do occur. Recently, on 31 March 2009, a tornado with a wind speed of about 250 kmph, and accompanied by a thunderstorm, rainfall and hail, struck Rajakanika block of Kendrapara district of Orissa causing the loss of about 15 human lives and leaving several injured, apart from damage to property. A detailed preliminary report on this event is available on the web site of the India Meteorological Department at http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/tornado_orrisa.pdf.

God’s Role in Natural Disasters (2)

As we wander a little away from the busy life of the city, nature begins to present sights that we rarely see. Mountains, hills, waterfalls, lush green plains, rivers, lakes, oceans, beaches, the clear blue sky, bring peace, serenity and tranquility to the spirit within us. When we explore nature further, we begin to feel overpowered by its awesomeness. Raw nature can be disturbing and even frightening, making us think of the mighty hand of God that has shaped all creation. But at times, nature can be angry, furious, relentless and unremorseful. Cyclones, earthquakes, droughts and floods can take the lives of thousands of people and render millions homeless and destitute. And then we ask, “What is God doing?”.

God’s role in natural disasters is clarified in the Bible in the Old Testament, the First Book of Kings, Chapter 19. Here we read about the persecution that the prophet Elijah was suffering under the regime of Queen Jezebel who believed in a god named Baal and King Ahab who did whatever the queen wanted. Jezebel sent Elijah a message that she would get him killed within a day. He was scared and ran for his life towards the faraway land of Horeb. When he was tired, he rested under a tree and asked God to bring an end to his torment by taking his life. But God had other plans for Elijah. He arranged for an angel to give him nourishment every day so that he could continue on his journey.

Strengthened by that food, Elijah travelled forty days and forty nights until he reached Horeb, the mountain of God. There he went into a cave and spent the night. And the word of the Lord came to him: “What are you doing here, Elijah?” He replied, “I have been very zealous for the Lord God Almighty. The Israelites have rejected your covenant, broken down your altars, and put your prophets to death with the sword. I am the only one left, and now they are trying to kill me too.” The Lord said, “Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the Lord, for the Lord is about to pass by.”

Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the Lord, but the Bible says that “the Lord was not in the wind.”

After the violent wind storm there was a powerful earthquake, but the Bible again says that “the Lord was not in the earthquake” either.

There was a third catastrophic event that followed the earthquake. This came in the form of a raging fire, but then again the Bible says that “the Lord was not in the fire.”

So where was God?

The Bible narrative continues to tell us that after the fury of all the three violent natural calamities had abated, came a gentle breeze. When Elijah heard it, he pulled his cloak over his face and went out and stood at the mouth of the cave. Then a voice said to him, “What are you doing here, Elijah?” Some Bible versions translate it as “a gentle whisper”, others as “a still, small voice”.

I Kings Chapter 19 tells us clearly that God may not choose to speak to people through violent nature. He can talk to us directly through our hearts in a still, small voice that we should train ourselves to hear.

The Floods of the Bible

There are many beautiful and awesome things that we see in the sky: clouds, lightning, the blue colour of the clear sky, the panorama at sunset, the silver lining around dark clouds, the sun’s rays penetrating the morning mist. But there is one particular phenomenon that is glorious and colourful, majestic and beautiful, that bridges the earth with the heavens and runs from one end of the sky to the other. It is the rainbow.

The Bible has numerous passages, particularly in the Psalms, in which natural phenomena like clouds, rain, hail, snow, dew, frost, lightning, thunder or earthquakes are regarded as being symbolic of God’s majesty, power and splendour. But God has chosen to associate Himself specifically with the rainbow and it is His sign of peace with mankind and all living beings. Whenever we see a rainbow in the sky, it should be our time to remember God’s tender mercies, love and salvation.

The first rainbow appeared in the aftermath of the great flood, the story of which is narrated in detail in the Bible (Genesis, Chapters 6-9). Here, the Bible tells how God was grieved due to man’s wickedness and the evil inclination of man’s thoughts and decided to wipe out His own creation. But there was one man, Noah, who had found favour with Him and God said to Noah, “I am going to put an end to all people, for the earth is filled with violence because of them. I am surely going to destroy both them and the earth. So make yourself an ark of cypress wood; and you will enter the ark, you and your sons and your wife and your sons’ wives with you. You are to bring into the ark two of all living creatures, male and female, to keep them alive with you.” Noah did everything just as God commanded him.

And then, as the Bible says, all the springs of the great deep burst forth, the floodgates of the heavens were opened and rain fell on the earth for forty days and forty nights. The waters rose and increased greatly on the earth, and the ark floated on the surface of the water. The waters flooded the earth for a hundred and fifty days. Every living thing that moved on the earth perished, but Noah and those who were in the ark were saved.

When the flood waters had receded, and God’s purpose had been accomplished, He said: “Never again will I curse the ground because of man, and never again will I destroy all living creatures, as I have done. As long as the earth endures, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night will never cease….Never again will all life be cut off by the waters of a flood; never again will there be a flood to destroy the earth.”

And God said, “I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it will be the sign of the covenant between me and the earth. Whenever I bring clouds over the earth and the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will remember my covenant between me and you and all living creatures of every kind. Never again will the waters become a flood to destroy all life.”

God has certainly kept His promise and from the Bible we can see that He intends to keep it to the end. The Bible itself has not reported any other instance of widespread flooding. When the Israelites were on their journey to the Promised Land, as many as ten different plagues of increasing severity were inflicted upon the Pharaoh and the Egyptian people (Exodus, Chapters 7-11). They included pollution of river waters, attacks by frogs and locusts, and death of the first-borns, but not floods.

When Jesus’ disciples asked Him about the signs of His second coming, He said that among other things, famines and earthquakes will occur in various places, but He did not speak about floods (Matthew 24:7). Even the Book of Revelation that very vividly describes the horrible tribulations which the earth will have to face at the end of this age, does not make any mention whatever of floods on earth.

However, while there is no further record of global floods in the Bible, it recognizes the reality that river floods have occurred and continue to occur on earth. Jesus Himself talked about floods in two different contexts. Jesus said that a person who hears His words and acts upon them is like a wise man who built his house on a firm foundation, so that when the river burst against it and the flood rose, it could withstand it (Luke 6:46-49). In another discussion, He told His disciples that just like the people on this earth were living life as usual, unaware of the impending flood, until Noah entered the ark, no one would know about His second coming except the Father (Matthew 24:36-39, Luke 17:27).

The Bible also acknowledges that floods are a part of the earth’s natural processes. In the account of the Israelites camping on the banks of the river Jordan and waiting to cross it, we are told that the river was in flood, as it always is during harvest (Joshua 3:15). However, water from upstream stopped flowing and piled up in a heap a great distance away and the entire nation of Israel was able to cross over on dry ground (Joshua 3:16-17). If this were a unique geohydrological phenomenon, no explanation is forthcoming in the Bible, and if it were a miracle, God has not taken credit for it.

However, David summarizes the situation beautifully in Psalm 124: “If the Lord had not been on our side….the flood would have engulfed us, the torrent would have swept over us, the raging waters would have swept us away….Our help is in the name of the Lord, the Maker of heaven and earth.”

In today’s times, floods do occur for various reasons. Rivers get flooded when there is a prolonged spell of heavy rainfall in their catchment areas and upstream regions. Rivers change course and take people by surprise. Cities get flooded because of inadequate drainage systems. Vast croplands get deluged when reservoir floodgates are opened to release water. So, floods are going to be there around us. But there is one difference: God is now on our side. And if God is for us, then who can be against us?

Marathi Article on World Meteorological Day 2008

The World Meteorological Day was celebrated on 23 March 2008. This year’s theme was “Observing our planet for a better future”. An article in Marathi by Prof R R Kelkar on the significance of this theme, was published in the Marathi newspaper “Sakal” from Pune on 23 March 2008. Click here to read.

Forecasting Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

The American Meteorological Society, on 5 June 2007, issued a policy statement that outlines the state of science of hurricane forecasting in the United States, including hurricane-related hazards, observations, forecasting skills, and continuing challenges. The AMS is a professional body that is not under the U. S. National Weather Service, and it has an independent and authoritative voice. The AMS statement on U. S. hurricanes makes several important points, some of which are applicable to tropical cyclones in general, and are therefore noteworthy for countries like India, which are regularly visited by such storms.

1. Track forecasts: The most heartening aspect of the AMS statement is that there has been a significant improvement in U. S. hurricane track forecasting in recent years. During the 5-year period 2001-2005, the hurricane track forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the U. S. National Weather Service had an average error of 65 nautical miles (120 km) for the 24-hour forecast and 118 nautical miles (269 km) for the 48-hour forecast. These errors are about half of what they used to be in 1990.

2. Intensity forecasts: The AMS statement, however, admits that forecasting of hurricane intensity still remains a challenge to forecasters. During the past 30 years, there has not been any noticeable improvement in the forecasts of storm intensity. Large errors typically occur when storms strengthen or weaken rapidly.

3. Warning and over-warning: The statement notes that although the forecasting of hurricane tracks has improved, hurricane warnings continue to be issued for large coastal areas of the U. S. However, the average length of the coastline warned has come down to 510 km in the current decade from 730 km in the preceding one. While only one-fourth of the warning area may actually experience hurricane conditions, some over-warning is justified in the interest of safeguarding life and property. Over-warning ensures that unexpected rapid increases in storm strength prior to landfall or unanticipated changes in the distribution of damaging winds, do not take under-prepared populations by surprise.

4. Rainfall: Prediction of rainfall from landfalling hurricanes is yet another illusive factor, particularly because of the effects of terrain.

5. Storm surge: The highest loss of life due to a hurricane continues to be attributed to the storm surge, which can be as high as 6 m when a strong hurricane strikes a coastline with shallow water offshore. The statement notes that in recent decades, large losses of life due to storm surge had become less frequent in the U. S. However, the rapid growth of the coastal population and related infrastructure, and the increasing complexity of evacuation have led to a greater vulnerability of the coastal communities. This became evident in the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, in which the loss of life in Louisiana and Mississippi was estimated to be 1700.

6. Storm surge modelling: Given a sufficiently accurate forecast of the hurricane’s track and surface wind structure, and the required topographic and bathymetric data, numerical models should be able to make a precise prediction of the inundation by storm surge. However, the AMS statement cautions that because of the uncertainty in hurricane forecasts, evacuation decisions should not be made on the basis of individual runs of a single storm surge model.

7. Seasonal prediction: The statement acknowledges the low confidence associated with seasonal predictions of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, particularly when applied to smaller areas of the basin.

8. Preparedness measures: The statement says that in order to build up a higher resilience to the hurricanes, there is a need for greater involvement of other disciplines including engineering, ecology, biology, the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, and public policy. A comprehensive framework is also essential for ensuring public understanding of the hurricane threat and the ability to take appropriate action to mitigate the loss of life and property that links the entire process — from data collection to forecast to communication of the societal impact.

9. New technology and modelling: According to the statement, the forecasts would benefit from continuing improvements in the observational systems such as Doppler radars and satellites that can effectively observe the details of the storm core, data assimilation techniques and modelling capabilities on both the global and regional scale, particularly in ocean–atmosphere interactions. More effective remote sensing of ocean surface winds can also improve the initial detection of storms and their further analysis and forecasting.

The complete text of the AMS statement is available online at http://www.ametsoc.org/POLICY/2007hurricaneforecasting.html.  

A Rational View of Climate Change: (1) Tropical Cyclones

One of the pre-conditions for the formation of a tropical cyclone is that the ocean should be warm enough (27 deg C or higher). Tropical storms therefore tend to form only over certain ocean basins and in certain preferred seasons where and when this condition could get satisfied. An increase in sea surface temperature brought about by global warming should, logically speaking, lead to enhanced cyclonic activity. However, it should be remembered here that a warm ocean is only one of the pre-conditions for the formation of a tropical cyclone, and not the only one. Tropical storms do not exist by themselves but are embedded in the general atmospheric flow which does influence them a great deal. And it is not only the number of tropical storms that is important, but also the peak intensity that they reach, and the length and orientation of the tracks that they follow. Thus statistical correlations between global warming and the frequency of occurrence of tropical storms cannot be viewed in isolation and without due regard to these other aspects.

Nowadays, whenever there is a major tropical cyclone or hurricane, heightened scientific and media attention gets focused upon global warming as a cause behind the extreme event. Thus Atlantic hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, or the recent Dean, or major typhoons elsewhere, at once result in a “we-told-you-so” stand being taken by climate change enthusiasts. In this context, it is worthwhile to take a look at what tropical cyclone experts from around the world have to say about it. An International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) was organized by the World Meteorological Organization at San Jose, Costa Rica, in November 2006. At the end of the Workshop, the participants issued a statement on the linkage between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones. Since there were 125 delegates from 34 different countries and regions, and since the process was overseen by a committee of the WMO Tropical Meteorology Research Programme TMRP Committee TC2, the statement can be regarded as an authoritative and consensus view of the global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters. The statement is remarkably balanced in its approach and findings and it is very categorical in what it says.

First of all, the consensus statement makes it very clear that no individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change. The increasing socio-economic impact that tropical cyclones have been making in recent years is largely because of rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

Another important point that the statement makes is that as of now, no firm conclusions can be drawn about the influence of global warming on tropical cyclones as there is equal evidence both for and against it.

The statement draws attention to the various difficulties in determining accurate long-term trends in the characteristics of tropical cyclones. The observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions could be natural or anthropogenic or both. Methods of estimating wind speeds associated with tropical cyclone have undergone changes in recent years and different practices are followed in different regions. In most regions there are no observations from instrumented aircraft flying into tropical cyclones.

The statement accepts that if the climate continues to warm, some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind speed and rainfall is likely to occur. There is, however, an inconsistency between models which project small changes in wind speed and some observational studies which suggest large changes. Also, how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact may change in the future cannot be foreseen now.

The statement also refers to the increased vulnerability of coastal areas due to cyclone-related storm surge, if the sea level were also to rise because of global warming.

The text of the Summary Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change can be read on the web site of the World Meteorological Organization at http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/arep/tmrp/documents/iwtc_summary.pdf and the text of the complete statement is available at http://www.wmo.ch/pages/prog/arep/tmrp/documents/iwtc_statement.pdf.

Tropical Cyclones

An article entitled “’Eye’ing the Cyclone” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar was published in the March 2006 issue of Geospatial Today. It covers various aspects like satellite monitoring of tropical cyclones, advances in satellite technology, nomenclature of weather systems, disaster management, cyclone track prediction and influence of global warming. Click here to read.

Understanding Extreme Weather Events

An article entitled “Understanding the Extreme Weather Events”, with special reference to the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005, by Prof. R. R. Kelkar was published in the November 2005 issue of the Newsletter of the Indian Water Resources Society. It discusses the nature of monsoon rains, Mumbai rains and flooding, forecasting urban flooding and disaster management. Click here to read.