Filmy Weather (10): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

On 27 July 2005 at 8:30 am, the observatory at Santa Cruz in north Mumbai recorded a rainfall of 94.4 cm during the previous 24 hours, while the Colaba observatory in Mumbai’s southern tip recorded barely 7.3 cm in the same period. Rainfall over Vihar lake was 105 cm, even higher than Santa Cruz. The previous record of heaviest 24-hour rainfall over Mumbai was 58 cm for Santa Cruz and 37 cm for Colaba on 5 July 1974. Comparatively speaking, only Santa Cruz broke the previous record, but for Colaba the rainfall was in no way unusual. However, the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005, as it is now referred to by meteorologists, was unusual in that it affected life in the metropolis in a never-before manner. Hundreds of people lost their lives, drowned by the deluge, fatally trapped in cars, electrocuted, or caught in the debris of collapsing buildings. The rains literally brought the city which never sleeps, to a standstill.

Meteorologists know that such phenomena do occur once in a way and they are called extreme events. But this was perhaps the most extreme of extreme events and it generated an extreme reaction among meteorologists, primarily because it had not been predicted. They held seminars, workshops and brainstorming sessions to analyse every aspect of the situation and to see if the event could somehow have been predicted or if a similar future occurrence could possibly be predicted. Climate change enthusiasts seized it as another opportunity to reinforce their claim that the climate has changed. Environmentalists blamed it all on the neglect of the environment.

It is now the turn of the moviemakers to take a look at the Mumbai rains from their own viewpoint. The Hindi film, Tum Mile, was to have been released on the fourth anniversary of the Mumbai rain event, but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009 when Mumbai had just been recovering from its brush with cyclone Phyan, which thankfully did not cause much damage or loss of life and had dissipated quickly.

Tum Mile begins with a shot of the campus of the University of Cape Town where Sanjana (Soha Ali Khan), is campaigning enthusiastically about the environment and climate change. Just when she is beginning to attract an audience, there is a sudden sharp shower that disperses the listeners and drowns her hopes as well. But in the background is Akshay (Emraan Hashmi), an aspiring painter, who falls in love with her at first sight. The film is full of flashbacks, but if the story is to be straightened out, it is just that their love grows, they decide to live together, and are generally happy, but when it comes to marriage, things begin to break apart and Sanjana and Akshay go their own ways. Six years later, they meet each other by coincidence on a flight to Mumbai, and by coincidence again the day they land in Mumbai happens to be 26 July 2005, the day of the deluge. At Mumbai airport they part ways to do what they have come to Mumbai to do. But they are both stuck in the rains and they do not reach their destinations. Instead they meet on the streets of Mumbai, wade through waist-deep water, rescue other people, and save themselves out of impossible situations. By the time morning breaks, they have rediscovered their lives and their love and stand wondering why they had ever separated at all.

The film begins with the usual disclaimer that the characters in the film are fictitious and that any resemblances are coincidental, etc. But there were two things that struck me hard while watching Tum Mile. One was that throughout the film, which had quite a lot of actual and make-believe footage, it appeared that people in Mumbai on that dreadful day, were fighting their battle with nature almost on their own. There were hardly any shots of the police, fire brigade, or ambulances in action or even in the background.

But apart from that, what struck me more was the perception of the story writer and the director of the film about the meteorological office. In fact, the opening shot of Tum Mile is that of what it called the “Weather Department (Mumbai)”. It shows the staff on duty busy playing carom. The place is dimly lit, but there are computer screens flashing data and images in bright colours. What could be a satellite picture shows an ominous cloud formation. One of the duty staff notices it when he happens to pass by the computer screen, but the others tell him not to worry but concentrate on their game of carom. There is a suggestion of informing the airport, but the idea is dropped. The day would be just another rainy day for Mumbai and nothing unusual was going to happen, is what they all feel. There is a second shot of the “Weather Department (Mumbai)” later in the film, in which the staff is taking a fresh look at the images and data. They are now shown to be amazed by what they see and there is a talk about giving a warning, But by that time, it is too late.

Yes, the legal disclaimer in the film says that any resemblances are purely coincidental, but it would be worthwhile for meteorologists to ponder about what people think of them and their forecasts in today’s world with its advanced technology, apart from the jokes and cartoons that have always been there about them.

– R R Kelkar

22 November 2009

Filmy Weather (9): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

The Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005 spawned several investigations by meteorologists, particularly modellers, to find out the reasons behind this most extreme of extreme events, and to attempt to somehow predict it even in hindsight. It is now the turn of moviemakers to take up this event and make a different kind of story out of it.

“Tum Mile” is a new Hindi movie based upon the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005. It was to be released on its fourth anniversary but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009. As chance would have it, while I am writing this blog on 11 November, Mumbai is under the threat of a cyclone and is already experiencing heavy rains! So the postponed movie release is also well-timed!

“Tum Mile”, directed by Kunal Deshmukh, stars Emraan Hashmi and Soha Ali Khan in lead roles. The story is about two ex-lovers who meet again after a gap of six years. They happen to be on the same flight back to Mumbai, and get there only to see the city going through its worst times, with the highest rainfall in history, and they are forced to stick together in this time of crisis. As the metropolis copes with its nightmare, they also struggle with their own situation, and come to terms with their own lives.

R. R. Kelkar

11 November 2009

Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in ‘Scholars Without Borders’

‘Scholars Without Borders’ is a site maintained by a group of academics based in New Delhi, and teaching and studying at Jawaharlal Nehru University. They give news about academic books published in India. It carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

“This is a good book to have had this summer… maybe. As the monsoon remains elusive and I sit sweltering in the Delhi heat and humidity, a book who’s title caught my eye is R R Kelkar’s Monsoon Prediction, from B S Publications, Hyderabad.

“Describing the book, Professor Kelkar says ‘The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.’

“He should know. Having retired as Director General of the Meterological Department, Kelkar has written a book on Satellite Meterology as well. ‘Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed the monsoon.

“The book discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.

“.…. Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.”

“Point taken.”

Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in Current Science

The 25 June 2009 issue (Vol 96, No. 12) of Current Science carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

The history of monsoon prediction in India dates back to 1886. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has the distinction of being the first national weather service in the world to start the operational monsoon prediction work. It all started in 1886, when Blanford used the relationship between winter Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon for predicting the ensuing monsoon rainfall. Sir Gilbert Walker, in 1910s and 1920s, initiated high-quality research in understanding the monsoon variability and development of statistical models. Since then, meteorologists have been working relentlessly to understand and predict Indian monsoon variability and numerous research papers have been published on this important topic. Many reviews have also been published. Monsoon prediction is now a challenging research area with plenty of scope and opportunity. However, we did not have a good compilation of all the results pertaining to monsoon prediction research. The book under review fills this gap. The author, R. R. Kelkar, who served IMD for more than 35 years was also responsible for operational monsoon prediction in IMD. He has used his rich experience in shaping this useful book. The book also includes a critical analysis of our prediction capability and its future scope and opportunities.

The book contains six chapters, describing the major components of the monsoon, global and regional teleconnections, different methods of seasonal monsoon prediction, characteristics of intra-seasonal variations and prediction, projection of monsoon in the 21st century and finally, problems and prospects associated with monsoon prediction.

The first chapter describes different ways of defining a monsoon, monsoon regions, and major climatological features of the Indian monsoon. There are many ways of defining a monsoon. But for the Indians, it is the annual cycle of rains over the country. Monsoon theories included the simple land–sea breeze theory to a complex theory that involves the atmosphere, land and ocean. Indian monsoon variability is influenced by many components of the global climate system. They are known as teleconnection patterns, linking the Indian monsoon variability to major climate anomalies around the world such as Eurasian snow cover and snow depth, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian and Atlantic oceans, and land surface temperature anomalies.

In the second chapter, various monsoon teleconnection patterns are discussed. Teleconnections with ENSO and snow cover are probably studied more and are discussed in detail. However, a detailed discussion on the role of Indian Ocean climate anomalies (Indian Ocean Dipole and EQUINOO) on Indian monsoon is missing. The relationship between sunspot activity and Indian monsoon is a research area with some renewed interest.

In India, statistical models are extensively used for monsoon prediction (long-range forecast). Most of these statistical models are based on the same principles used by Gilbert Walker in 1920s. IMD now uses an updated statistical model for issuing operational long range forecasts based on the ensemble technique. Chapter 3 discusses the details of these statistical models, including the parameters used in the model. The models include simple linear regression, discriminant models for probability distributions and the latest ensemble method based on projection pursuit regression.

Prediction of the quantum of rainfall during the whole season (seasonal prediction) is useful for planning purposes. However, for the farmers, prediction on intra-seasonal timescales (for example, 15–20 days) is more relevant for their day-to-day operations. Similarly, prediction of intra-seasonal activities such as onset and withdrawal, and the active–break cycles of the Indian monsoon is crucial for agricultural planning. However, little work has been done on this important area. Prediction of various monsoon intra-seasonal elements is discussed in Chapter 4. This is an emerging area of research both in India and abroad. This chapter also includes a brief discussion on the use of atmospheric and coupled general circulation models for seasonal monsoon prediction.

In the particular context of climate change due to global warming, it is important to know the future projections of the Indian monsoon. Chapter 5 discusses the projection of the Indian monsoon behaviour in the 21st century. The chapter starts with a discussion on the observed climate change over India using instrumental datasets, followed by future emission scenarios and climate projections. Even though there is no appreciable trend in the quantum of monsoon rainfall averaged over the country, there are significant trends in monsoon rainfall over different parts of the country. Also, there are temporal changes during the monsoon season. Most of the current climate models indicate that monsoon rainfall would increase in future climate. However, there are many uncertainties in the climate model projections. Most of the current climate models are unable to simulate the observed features of the Indian monsoon in their totality. It is important to understand and appreciate these uncertainties in the global climate models in interpreting and using the future climate-change projections.

In the final chapter, the problems and prospects of monsoon prediction are discussed. There are known limitations of the statistical models, like secular variations of correlation, choice of optimum number of predictors and training period, etc. However, in spite of these known constraints, statistical models continue to be popular for several reasons. The users, while interpreting forecasts from these statistical models, should understand and appreciate the limitations of these models. There are other issues like the definition of all-India summer monsoon rainfall (averaged over the whole country and whole season from 1 June to 30 September), changes in the global teleconnection patterns, especially with ENSO. Statistical models cannot be used for prediction on much smaller spatial and temporal scales. For this specific need, we have to use dynamical models. The future prospects of monsoon prediction are completely dependent on the skill of advanced dynamical models, which showed an improvement in the model skill over the recent years. Specifically, monsoon field experiments and Indian climate research programmes will improve our understanding of the monsoon variability and thus monsoon prediction.

This book is specifically designed on monsoon prediction as it discusses the current state-of-the-art of monsoon prediction, its problems and prospects. It provides a critical analysis on how good we are in monsoon prediction and what are its future prospects in the context of improvement in dynamical models and monsoon field experiments. The book contains a good compilation of useful and updated references at the end of each chapter. The book will be useful to meteorologists, especially operational forecasters and students in meteorology and anyone interested in knowing more about monsoon prediction.

- M. RAJEEVAN

God’s Role in Natural Disasters (2)

As we wander a little away from the busy life of the city, nature begins to present sights that we rarely see. Mountains, hills, waterfalls, lush green plains, rivers, lakes, oceans, beaches, the clear blue sky, bring peace, serenity and tranquility to the spirit within us. When we explore nature further, we begin to feel overpowered by its awesomeness. Raw nature can be disturbing and even frightening, making us think of the mighty hand of God that has shaped all creation. But at times, nature can be angry, furious, relentless and unremorseful. Cyclones, earthquakes, droughts and floods can take the lives of thousands of people and render millions homeless and destitute. And then we ask, “What is God doing?”.

God’s role in natural disasters is clarified in the Bible in the Old Testament, the First Book of Kings, Chapter 19. Here we read about the persecution that the prophet Elijah was suffering under the regime of Queen Jezebel who believed in a god named Baal and King Ahab who did whatever the queen wanted. Jezebel sent Elijah a message that she would get him killed within a day. He was scared and ran for his life towards the faraway land of Horeb. When he was tired, he rested under a tree and asked God to bring an end to his torment by taking his life. But God had other plans for Elijah. He arranged for an angel to give him nourishment every day so that he could continue on his journey.

Strengthened by that food, Elijah travelled forty days and forty nights until he reached Horeb, the mountain of God. There he went into a cave and spent the night. And the word of the Lord came to him: “What are you doing here, Elijah?” He replied, “I have been very zealous for the Lord God Almighty. The Israelites have rejected your covenant, broken down your altars, and put your prophets to death with the sword. I am the only one left, and now they are trying to kill me too.” The Lord said, “Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the Lord, for the Lord is about to pass by.”

Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the Lord, but the Bible says that “the Lord was not in the wind.”

After the violent wind storm there was a powerful earthquake, but the Bible again says that “the Lord was not in the earthquake” either.

There was a third catastrophic event that followed the earthquake. This came in the form of a raging fire, but then again the Bible says that “the Lord was not in the fire.”

So where was God?

The Bible narrative continues to tell us that after the fury of all the three violent natural calamities had abated, came a gentle breeze. When Elijah heard it, he pulled his cloak over his face and went out and stood at the mouth of the cave. Then a voice said to him, “What are you doing here, Elijah?” Some Bible versions translate it as “a gentle whisper”, others as “a still, small voice”.

I Kings Chapter 19 tells us clearly that God may not choose to speak to people through violent nature. He can talk to us directly through our hearts in a still, small voice that we should train ourselves to hear.

The Floods of the Bible

There are many beautiful and awesome things that we see in the sky: clouds, lightning, the blue colour of the clear sky, the panorama at sunset, the silver lining around dark clouds, the sun’s rays penetrating the morning mist. But there is one particular phenomenon that is glorious and colourful, majestic and beautiful, that bridges the earth with the heavens and runs from one end of the sky to the other. It is the rainbow.

The Bible has numerous passages, particularly in the Psalms, in which natural phenomena like clouds, rain, hail, snow, dew, frost, lightning, thunder or earthquakes are regarded as being symbolic of God’s majesty, power and splendour. But God has chosen to associate Himself specifically with the rainbow and it is His sign of peace with mankind and all living beings. Whenever we see a rainbow in the sky, it should be our time to remember God’s tender mercies, love and salvation.

The first rainbow appeared in the aftermath of the great flood, the story of which is narrated in detail in the Bible (Genesis, Chapters 6-9). Here, the Bible tells how God was grieved due to man’s wickedness and the evil inclination of man’s thoughts and decided to wipe out His own creation. But there was one man, Noah, who had found favour with Him and God said to Noah, “I am going to put an end to all people, for the earth is filled with violence because of them. I am surely going to destroy both them and the earth. So make yourself an ark of cypress wood; and you will enter the ark, you and your sons and your wife and your sons’ wives with you. You are to bring into the ark two of all living creatures, male and female, to keep them alive with you.” Noah did everything just as God commanded him.

And then, as the Bible says, all the springs of the great deep burst forth, the floodgates of the heavens were opened and rain fell on the earth for forty days and forty nights. The waters rose and increased greatly on the earth, and the ark floated on the surface of the water. The waters flooded the earth for a hundred and fifty days. Every living thing that moved on the earth perished, but Noah and those who were in the ark were saved.

When the flood waters had receded, and God’s purpose had been accomplished, He said: “Never again will I curse the ground because of man, and never again will I destroy all living creatures, as I have done. As long as the earth endures, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, summer and winter, day and night will never cease….Never again will all life be cut off by the waters of a flood; never again will there be a flood to destroy the earth.”

And God said, “I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it will be the sign of the covenant between me and the earth. Whenever I bring clouds over the earth and the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will remember my covenant between me and you and all living creatures of every kind. Never again will the waters become a flood to destroy all life.”

God has certainly kept His promise and from the Bible we can see that He intends to keep it to the end. The Bible itself has not reported any other instance of widespread flooding. When the Israelites were on their journey to the Promised Land, as many as ten different plagues of increasing severity were inflicted upon the Pharaoh and the Egyptian people (Exodus, Chapters 7-11). They included pollution of river waters, attacks by frogs and locusts, and death of the first-borns, but not floods.

When Jesus’ disciples asked Him about the signs of His second coming, He said that among other things, famines and earthquakes will occur in various places, but He did not speak about floods (Matthew 24:7). Even the Book of Revelation that very vividly describes the horrible tribulations which the earth will have to face at the end of this age, does not make any mention whatever of floods on earth.

However, while there is no further record of global floods in the Bible, it recognizes the reality that river floods have occurred and continue to occur on earth. Jesus Himself talked about floods in two different contexts. Jesus said that a person who hears His words and acts upon them is like a wise man who built his house on a firm foundation, so that when the river burst against it and the flood rose, it could withstand it (Luke 6:46-49). In another discussion, He told His disciples that just like the people on this earth were living life as usual, unaware of the impending flood, until Noah entered the ark, no one would know about His second coming except the Father (Matthew 24:36-39, Luke 17:27).

The Bible also acknowledges that floods are a part of the earth’s natural processes. In the account of the Israelites camping on the banks of the river Jordan and waiting to cross it, we are told that the river was in flood, as it always is during harvest (Joshua 3:15). However, water from upstream stopped flowing and piled up in a heap a great distance away and the entire nation of Israel was able to cross over on dry ground (Joshua 3:16-17). If this were a unique geohydrological phenomenon, no explanation is forthcoming in the Bible, and if it were a miracle, God has not taken credit for it.

However, David summarizes the situation beautifully in Psalm 124: “If the Lord had not been on our side….the flood would have engulfed us, the torrent would have swept over us, the raging waters would have swept us away….Our help is in the name of the Lord, the Maker of heaven and earth.”

In today’s times, floods do occur for various reasons. Rivers get flooded when there is a prolonged spell of heavy rainfall in their catchment areas and upstream regions. Rivers change course and take people by surprise. Cities get flooded because of inadequate drainage systems. Vast croplands get deluged when reservoir floodgates are opened to release water. So, floods are going to be there around us. But there is one difference: God is now on our side. And if God is for us, then who can be against us?