Filmy Weather (9): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

The Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005 spawned several investigations by meteorologists, particularly modellers, to find out the reasons behind this most extreme of extreme events, and to attempt to somehow predict it even in hindsight. It is now the turn of moviemakers to take up this event and make a different kind of story out of it.

“Tum Mile” is a new Hindi movie based upon the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005. It was to be released on its fourth anniversary but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009. As chance would have it, while I am writing this blog on 11 November, Mumbai is under the threat of a cyclone and is already experiencing heavy rains! So the postponed movie release is also well-timed!

“Tum Mile”, directed by Kunal Deshmukh, stars Emraan Hashmi and Soha Ali Khan in lead roles. The story is about two ex-lovers who meet again after a gap of six years. They happen to be on the same flight back to Mumbai, and get there only to see the city going through its worst times, with the highest rainfall in history, and they are forced to stick together in this time of crisis. As the metropolis copes with its nightmare, they also struggle with their own situation, and come to terms with their own lives.

R. R. Kelkar

11 November 2009

Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in ‘Scholars Without Borders’

‘Scholars Without Borders’ is a site maintained by a group of academics based in New Delhi, and teaching and studying at Jawaharlal Nehru University. They give news about academic books published in India. It carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

“This is a good book to have had this summer… maybe. As the monsoon remains elusive and I sit sweltering in the Delhi heat and humidity, a book who’s title caught my eye is R R Kelkar’s Monsoon Prediction, from B S Publications, Hyderabad.

“Describing the book, Professor Kelkar says ‘The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.’

“He should know. Having retired as Director General of the Meterological Department, Kelkar has written a book on Satellite Meterology as well. ‘Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed the monsoon.

“The book discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.

“.…. Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.”

“Point taken.”

Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in Current Science

The 25 June 2009 issue (Vol 96, No. 12) of Current Science carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

The history of monsoon prediction in India dates back to 1886. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has the distinction of being the first national weather service in the world to start the operational monsoon prediction work. It all started in 1886, when Blanford used the relationship between winter Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon for predicting the ensuing monsoon rainfall. Sir Gilbert Walker, in 1910s and 1920s, initiated high-quality research in understanding the monsoon variability and development of statistical models. Since then, meteorologists have been working relentlessly to understand and predict Indian monsoon variability and numerous research papers have been published on this important topic. Many reviews have also been published. Monsoon prediction is now a challenging research area with plenty of scope and opportunity. However, we did not have a good compilation of all the results pertaining to monsoon prediction research. The book under review fills this gap. The author, R. R. Kelkar, who served IMD for more than 35 years was also responsible for operational monsoon prediction in IMD. He has used his rich experience in shaping this useful book. The book also includes a critical analysis of our prediction capability and its future scope and opportunities.

The book contains six chapters, describing the major components of the monsoon, global and regional teleconnections, different methods of seasonal monsoon prediction, characteristics of intra-seasonal variations and prediction, projection of monsoon in the 21st century and finally, problems and prospects associated with monsoon prediction.

The first chapter describes different ways of defining a monsoon, monsoon regions, and major climatological features of the Indian monsoon. There are many ways of defining a monsoon. But for the Indians, it is the annual cycle of rains over the country. Monsoon theories included the simple land–sea breeze theory to a complex theory that involves the atmosphere, land and ocean. Indian monsoon variability is influenced by many components of the global climate system. They are known as teleconnection patterns, linking the Indian monsoon variability to major climate anomalies around the world such as Eurasian snow cover and snow depth, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian and Atlantic oceans, and land surface temperature anomalies.

In the second chapter, various monsoon teleconnection patterns are discussed. Teleconnections with ENSO and snow cover are probably studied more and are discussed in detail. However, a detailed discussion on the role of Indian Ocean climate anomalies (Indian Ocean Dipole and EQUINOO) on Indian monsoon is missing. The relationship between sunspot activity and Indian monsoon is a research area with some renewed interest.

In India, statistical models are extensively used for monsoon prediction (long-range forecast). Most of these statistical models are based on the same principles used by Gilbert Walker in 1920s. IMD now uses an updated statistical model for issuing operational long range forecasts based on the ensemble technique. Chapter 3 discusses the details of these statistical models, including the parameters used in the model. The models include simple linear regression, discriminant models for probability distributions and the latest ensemble method based on projection pursuit regression.

Prediction of the quantum of rainfall during the whole season (seasonal prediction) is useful for planning purposes. However, for the farmers, prediction on intra-seasonal timescales (for example, 15–20 days) is more relevant for their day-to-day operations. Similarly, prediction of intra-seasonal activities such as onset and withdrawal, and the active–break cycles of the Indian monsoon is crucial for agricultural planning. However, little work has been done on this important area. Prediction of various monsoon intra-seasonal elements is discussed in Chapter 4. This is an emerging area of research both in India and abroad. This chapter also includes a brief discussion on the use of atmospheric and coupled general circulation models for seasonal monsoon prediction.

In the particular context of climate change due to global warming, it is important to know the future projections of the Indian monsoon. Chapter 5 discusses the projection of the Indian monsoon behaviour in the 21st century. The chapter starts with a discussion on the observed climate change over India using instrumental datasets, followed by future emission scenarios and climate projections. Even though there is no appreciable trend in the quantum of monsoon rainfall averaged over the country, there are significant trends in monsoon rainfall over different parts of the country. Also, there are temporal changes during the monsoon season. Most of the current climate models indicate that monsoon rainfall would increase in future climate. However, there are many uncertainties in the climate model projections. Most of the current climate models are unable to simulate the observed features of the Indian monsoon in their totality. It is important to understand and appreciate these uncertainties in the global climate models in interpreting and using the future climate-change projections.

In the final chapter, the problems and prospects of monsoon prediction are discussed. There are known limitations of the statistical models, like secular variations of correlation, choice of optimum number of predictors and training period, etc. However, in spite of these known constraints, statistical models continue to be popular for several reasons. The users, while interpreting forecasts from these statistical models, should understand and appreciate the limitations of these models. There are other issues like the definition of all-India summer monsoon rainfall (averaged over the whole country and whole season from 1 June to 30 September), changes in the global teleconnection patterns, especially with ENSO. Statistical models cannot be used for prediction on much smaller spatial and temporal scales. For this specific need, we have to use dynamical models. The future prospects of monsoon prediction are completely dependent on the skill of advanced dynamical models, which showed an improvement in the model skill over the recent years. Specifically, monsoon field experiments and Indian climate research programmes will improve our understanding of the monsoon variability and thus monsoon prediction.

This book is specifically designed on monsoon prediction as it discusses the current state-of-the-art of monsoon prediction, its problems and prospects. It provides a critical analysis on how good we are in monsoon prediction and what are its future prospects in the context of improvement in dynamical models and monsoon field experiments. The book contains a good compilation of useful and updated references at the end of each chapter. The book will be useful to meteorologists, especially operational forecasters and students in meteorology and anyone interested in knowing more about monsoon prediction.

- M. RAJEEVAN

Book Review of “Satellite Meteorology” by R. R. Kelkar in WMO Bulletin

The April 2009 issue (Vol 58, No. 2) of the WMO Bulletin published by the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva,  carries this review of the book “Satellite Meteorology” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

Satellite Meteorology

R. R. Kelkar. BS Publications (2007).
ISBN 81-7800-137-3.
xix + 251 pp.
Price: US$ 26

Observing our weather from space—referred to here as satellite meteorology (SM)—has revolutionized our understanding of how the atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere operate and interact as part of a system. By the unique virtue of being global, satellite data have radically transformed the way meteorologists perform numerical weather prediction (NWP). Today, gigabytes of radiances from satellites are routinely assimilated into weather forecast models.

This book traces the fascinating history of satellite meteorology and its application to NWP, starting from the beginning of the space era up to the current state-of-the-art sensors, providing the reader with a comprehensive introduction to remote-sensing, climate monitoring and weather forecasting, with a particular focus on Indian meteorology. In particular, the book covers (and illustrates with nice colour figures) a variety of remote-sensing topics ranging from the orbits of the satellites, the types of radiation they sense, the physical understanding of their measurement and the retrieval of ocean, land and atmospheric parameters, up to the exploitation of their data to study tropical weather systems and constrain, validate and initialize NWP models.

The book constitutes very good material for university students planning a career in physics or Earth sciences, as well as a reference for scientists involved in Earth system research or operational weather prediction, in particular over tropical regions.

The author, R. R. Kelkar, who [was] ISRO Space Chair Professor at the University of Pune, India, has a long experience in satellite meteorology at the India Meteorological Department, and has done a very good job in synthesizing this fast growing field, highlighting its potential,as well as the related challenges and opportunities.

Reviewed by Pierre-Philippe Mathieu

Radhanath Sikdar: Through the Haze of Time and Neglect

An article on Radhanath Sikdar entitled “Through the Haze of Time and Neglect” by Ajana Choudhury, R. R. Kelkar and A. K. Sen Sarma was published on the Statesman Online edition of 1 March 2009. Click on the following link to read it.
http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=30&theme=&usrsess=1&id=245496

Alternatively, to read a pdf version, click here.

Kalidasa’s Meghadoot and Monsoon Meteorology

I had delivered a lecture at the Marathi Department of the University of Pune on 9 February 2009 in which I had presented a meteorologist’s view of the poetic fantasies of fourth century Sanskrit poet Kalidasa in his ‘Meghadoot’ and the modern day Marathi monsoon poems of Mangesh Padgaonkar.

Abhijit Ghorpade who attended my lecture, has reviewed and paraphrased my talk in an article in the Marathi newapaper ‘Loksatta’ published from Pune on 22 February 2009.

Click here to read the article.

R. R. Kelkar

Filmy Weather (2): Aandhi, A Political Storm

“Aandhi” is a short-lived and localized weather phenomenon that develops over the plains of north and northwest India in the summer months of March, April and June. These are the driest months of the year, in between the winter rains which are over and the southwest monsoon which is yet to come. The soil particles become loose, and the first thunderstorms result in throwing up enormous amounts of dust and sand into the air. There is not much of rain, as the rain drops get evaporated on their way before they can reach the ground. The result is a dust storm known locally in Hindi as “Aandhi”.

Over Rajasthan, some convective dust storms can be so intense that dust walls may be created even 30 km away from the main thunderstorm. Even when the storm has ended, the dust may remain suspended in the atmosphere for quite some time, produce haze and reduce visibility.

An Hindi film entitled “Aandhi” was released in early 1975. Directed by Gulzar, the film had powerful and sensitive performances by Suchitra Sen and Sanjeev Kumar. The music was given by R. D. Burman and the lyrics were Gulzar’s own. Three of the songs became the most popular, “Is mod pe jaate hain”, “Tum aa gaye ho noor aa gaya hain”, “Tere bina zindagi se koi shikawa to nahin”.

The film “Aandhi” has almost nothing to do with the meteorological phenomenon after which it is named. The story is about Arti Devi (Suchitra Sen), who is torn between her ambitious father (Rehman) who wants her to have a political career, and husband J. K. (Sanjeev Kumar) who is content with his job as a hotel manager and wants her to live as a simple housewife. Arti Devi opts for politics, and they separate. After nine years, they happen to meet again when Arti Devi who is on an election campaign, comes to stay as a guest in J. K.’s hotel.

The story had an unwitting similarity with the lives of known personalities and the film was even put under a temporary ban after its release.

“Aandhi” is set against the background of election rallies, political maneuvering, mud slinging, physical assault and all that goes on behind the scenes in an election. But amidst all this, Arti Devi and J. K. also take the opportunity to rediscover themselves and realign their relationships.

“Aandhi” is basically about stormy politics, but it is perhaps more about weathering the storms of life.

Tropical Cyclones

An article entitled “’Eye’ing the Cyclone” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar was published in the March 2006 issue of Geospatial Today. It covers various aspects like satellite monitoring of tropical cyclones, advances in satellite technology, nomenclature of weather systems, disaster management, cyclone track prediction and influence of global warming. Click here to read.

Understanding Extreme Weather Events

An article entitled “Understanding the Extreme Weather Events”, with special reference to the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005, by Prof. R. R. Kelkar was published in the November 2005 issue of the Newsletter of the Indian Water Resources Society. It discusses the nature of monsoon rains, Mumbai rains and flooding, forecasting urban flooding and disaster management. Click here to read.

God’s Role in Natural Disasters (1)

On 15 January 1934, at 2:21 pm IST, there was a massive earthquake of magnitude 8.3 on the Richter scale with its epicentre located at latitude 26.6 °N and longitude 86.8 °E on the Bihar-Nepal border (Ref. 1).

Tremors of the Bihar earthquake were felt as far as Allahabad, where Jawaharlal Nehru had been standing in the verandah of his house talking to a group of farmers. He could hardly keep his balance and had to cling to a column nearby. Doors were banging and the tiles over the roof of Swaraj Bhawan were sliding down. The shocks ended after some time and the episode was soon forgotten. Nehru wrote that he could not have guessed what those two or three minutes had meant to the millions of people in Bihar (Ref. 2).

In fact, as many as 7,000 people were said to have perished in Bihar and another 3,000 in Nepal, although unofficial estimates put the casualty figures much higher. The district towns of Monghyr and Muzaffarpur suffered the maximum damage and loss of lives, but Kathmandu and Darjeeling were also badly affected.

Nehru later went on a tour of the earthquake-affected areas, when he read with a great shock a statement of Mahatma Gandhi to the effect that the earthquake had been a punishment for the sin of untouchability. On this, Nehru raised several rhetorical questions like: If the earthquake was a divine punishment for sin, how are we to discover for which sin we are being punished? Why did not the earthquake visit the land of untouchability itself? Was it a judgment on the prevailing zamindari system since many rich land owners had suffered losses in the earthquake? Could the British rulers interpret it as a divine punishment because Bihar had been taking a leading role in the freedom movement? Since Nehru did not attempt to answer these questions, it is obvious that he had posed them just to indicate that Gandhi’s logic was flawed or difficult to understand. Nehru concluded that it was astounding to suggest that human customs could cause movements in the earth’s crust (Ref 2).

There was another person who was equally surprised and disturbed by Gandhi’s statement about the Bihar earthquake: Rabindranath Tagore. However, Tagore took the cautious route of first checking with Gandhi whether he had really said what had been ascribed to him. True to his character, Gandhi did not disown his statement, nor did he give any excuse of being mis-reported, but confirmed that he had indeed linked the Bihar earthquake with the sin of untouchability while he was at Tinnevelly. He added that he had spoken with great deliberation and out of the fullness of his heart, and he had spoken what he had believed.

Gandhiji responded to Tagore with fairness and openness. He printed Tagore’s criticism in his own journal, Harijan, but followed it with a spirited rejoinder (Ref. 3). Accusing Gandhi of unreason, Tagore had argued that physical catastrophies must have their origin in physical facts. He believed in the inexorableness of the universal law in the working of which God himself never interferes. He felt that our own sins and errors, however enormous, could never have enough force to drag the structure of creation to ruins.

Gandhi’s defence was that we do not know all the laws of God nor their working. Taking a broader view, Gandhi expressed his belief that visitations like droughts, floods, earthquakes and the like, with seemingly physical origins, were somehow connected with man’s morals, though this connection cannot be proved. While the physical effects of an earthquake would be forgotten and repaired, the moral lessons would have to be learnt. Disagreeing with Tagore, Gandhi asserted that human sins do have the force to ruin the physical world. His message was that natural disasters should draw us nearer to God, humble us, and make us readier for facing God (Ref. 3).

The questions raised by Gandhi, Tagore and Nehru in the aftermath of the Bihar earthquake of 1934, were not new. These issues had been a subject of debate for thousands of years before the event, and such questions are put forth even today. In the Holy Bible, there are literally hundreds of references in the Old Testament which make no secret of God’s intentions to bring disaster on the nations of the earth. God seems to be ever ready with his package of sword, plague and famine, with earthquakes and hailstorms added. But He also acts fair in the sense that He gives the vulnerable populations sufficient advance warnings of the impending disasters, either directly or through His messengers. He always explains to the people the reasons behind His decrees and also what He expects to accomplish by inflicting the planned disasters. Out of His many purposes behind disasters, the most common one is to make people leave their sinful ways and realize that He is God.

Even in the New Testament, where God’s image changes to that of a loving father, no respite is offered to humanity from disasters. The package of sword, earthquake, famine and pestilence would be unleashed at the end of the age. It is interesting to read an account of how Jesus reacts to the news of two local disasters, the slaughter of some Galileans by Pontius Pilate and the collapse of a tower in Jerusalem killing several people. Jesus’ audience is perhaps expecting from him an explanation about the role of a loving God in a suffering world. Instead, Jesus confronts the gathering around him with a question of his own: Do you think that those who suffered were worse sinners or more guilty than all the others? He then goes to answer his own question: I tell you, no! But unless you repent, you too will all perish (Ref. 4).

Historical records tell us that down the ages, millions of human beings have perished in natural disasters. At the same time, we also know that in the day of disaster, countless people have sought refuge in God, dwelt with Him in safety, and received His protection, comfort and consolation. To me, the key issue here is to try to comprehend that neither God’s wrath, nor His love, nor His forgiveness, nor His grace, is limited by or is in proportion to the degree of human sinfulness. Had it been otherwise, divine judgment would have been a terror for the earth and human salvation an impossibility.

References: (1) IMD web site www.imd.gov.in, (2) Jawaharlal Nehru: An Autobiography, Chapter LVIII Earthquake, 1936, (3) Sabyasachi Bhattacharya: The Mahatma and the Poet, Part IV, Documents 3-6, 1997, (4) Holy Bible, New International Version, Luke 13:1-4, Luke 21:10-11.

P. S 1: Another earthquake struck almost the same place on the Bihar-Nepal border on 21 August 1988 but it had a lesser magnitude of 6.4 on the Richter scale. It took a death toll of 850, caused structural damages to thousands of buildings and totally ruined many villages in Bihar. But this time there was no speculation about the earthquake having been the result of a divine intervention. Perhaps secular India had come of age.

P. S. 2: If human beings are really incapable of interfering in natural processes, then what is all this talk of climate change about?