Follow the 2009 Southwest Monsoon
The normal date of the onset of the southwest monsoon over the southern tip of India is 1 June. The monsoon takes about a month and a half to travel from Kerala to west Rajasthan and it does not advance into the country at a constant speed. See map below:
If you want to know how the southwest monsoon has been progressing this year over India, the best way is to visit the official web site of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) at www.imd.gov.in.
As per IMD, the southwest monsoon arrived over Kerala on 23 May 2009. This is 9 days ahead of its normal onset date of 1 June.
IMD’s original long range forecast for the 2009 southwest monsoon season (June to September) was that the rainfall for the country as a whole was likely to be Near Normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall was likely to be 96% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%.
IMD’s long range forecast update for the 2009 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall is now likely to be Below Normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is now likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
The long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm. To read the full text of the long range forecast update visit the IMD web site or click on Updated Monsoon Forecast 2009
Another good site is Monsoon On Line hosted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, on which you can see daily, weekly and seasonal rainfall statistics of the southwest monsoon rainfall over India and the current satellite imagery.
venu said
can we send articles in Meteorology. pls can you confirm.
venu said
I have forecasted longback that onset SW monsoon rains over Kerala will be 01-03 Jun 08. (Visit my blog at sulekha.com datd 10 May 08)
rrkelkar said
Dear Venu,
Thanks for your comments. You will appreciate that Cloud and Sunshine is just a blog and not a site that accepts articles. But there are other online magazines like ‘earthscienceindia’ where you can try to submit them.
R R Kelkar
Mahesh Burte said
Dear Sir,
Why IMD again fail to predict the onset of monsoon over Mumbai? Just two days prior to onset i.e. 7th june, IMD declared that onset of monsoon over mumbai will be not before 12th June ( sahaydri news channel ) Which are the parameters one must study for decalring onset of monsoon over a region?
rrkelkar said
IMD Mumbai has its own web site at http://www.imdmumbai.gov.in on which you can get more detailed information about the weather over Mumbai city and the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat. You may send your specific query about the onset by email to ddgm@imdmumbai.gov.in.
Jaya said
Will it be a normal monsoon for our farmers . Deep in debt and desolate farmers need Varuna Grace to pull it off this year. I pray to Lord SAI to bless with normal rain for these farmers.
rrkelkar said
Dear Jaya,
Most predictions are for a normal monsoon this year. But please keep in mind that a normal monsoon for the country as a whole does not mean that it will be raining equitably everywhere and all times. Even in years of excellent rains, there are some pockets of deficient rainfall and there are dry spells in between wet spells.
R R Kelkar
anagha said
sir, can u tell me about konkan monsoon. from one half month there is no in these area. when will start monsoon apropriatly
Sachin Chinchorkar said
Sir,
From Last two months the Maxm Temp is incresaed,can you say that the this year we get normal monsoon,because our farmer is well depend on monsoon.
Sir Based on this : 1. can we get the break in monsoon in July
what the farmer will do in this situation
2. What is the situation of SW monsoon now
Prof R R Kelkar said
Dear Sachin,
Thank you for your interest in my blog. Let me clarify that the India Meteorological Department gives its long range forecast for the country’s average rainfall and not for individual states or districts. The long range forecast for the 2009 monsoon is available at the IMD web site http://imd.gov.in/. It describes how the forecast is arrived at and what factors are important for the monsoon. This site is the best source of information for the day-to-day progress of the monsoon and I recommend that you should visit the IMD web site at least once a day.
There is another IMD web site http://www.imdagrimet.org/ where you can find a lot of information on the weather from the point of view of farmers. If there is a likely break in the monsoon, this web site will tell the farmers what they can do in that situation. These “agro-met” advisories are given on the web site for every individual state and even every district. They are written in the local languages, like Marathi for Maharashtra state, so that farmers can easily understand. I suggest that you also visit this site regularly and make use of the advisories that are given specially keeping the farmers’ requirements and problems in view.
I feel that you will find useful information in these two web sites and I recommend that you make a habit of seeing them daily throughtout the monsoon season.
Best wishes,
Sincerely,
R R Kelkar
Shabeeh said
Dear Sir,
Could you tell me where I can get right prediction abt monsoon in Rajasthan?
how much would be the rainfall and approx weeks ?? I am running a wooden furniture export business and one big order is on the way. I need to have all this details cox monsoon gonna play a major role in my production. I hope you will satisfy my query.
thank in advance.
Prof R R Kelkar said
Please visit the IMD web site http://www.imd.gov.in regularly and you will get updates on the progress of the monsoon. The monsoon has just entered Kerala. Rajasthan is the last point of its northward journey and it takes about 5-6 weeks to complete it.
Jenendre Yadav said
Respected Sir,
I just want to say that after reaching Kerala on 23 May, s-w monsoon got really slow and till now its unpredictable that when will it reach Mumbai? The only thing that I can relate to it is the blowing north westerlies and westerlies which are resisting the inward flow of south westerlies but is this also showing the impact of changing weather pattern as because this year it has been a severely wet summer for europe till now, so, could it cause an impact on the monsoons in india? And, if the answer is yes then what kind of weather we may expect in the upcoming years?
Prof R R Kelkar said
Dear Jenendre,
What you say about this year’s monsoon onset is quite right. It has been a rather erratic onset. First the monsoon arrived over Kerala about 9 days ahead of its normal date of 1 June. Then there was a tropical cyclone Aila that went northwards all the way to West Bengal, disturbing the monsoon flow. After that the equatorial trough over the southern hemisphere became active and remained so for a long time. Now the entire monsoon flow seems to have weakened.
What I would like to clarify is that the onset of the monsoon over Kerala is a global circulation event and so it can be predicted. This year an early onset was in fact predicted. But the arrival of the first monsoon rains over the interior parts of India is governed more by local factors and therefore more difficult to predict.
Before we rush to a conclusion that the weather patterns have changed, it is necessary to consider the fact that the monsoon has a high interannual and intraseasonal variability. A variety of scenarios are possible and every year’s monsoon is different from others in one way or another. The s-w monsoon covers India sometimes quickly but sometimes slowly. The normal date of its arrival over extreme west Rajasthan is 15 July. So we have to wait and watch its progress this year.
By the way, I have written a book on the subject of monsoon prediction, the details of which are available elsewhere on this blog. If you are really interested, you can get a copy for yourself.
If there is anything more you want to ask, feel free to do so.
Regards
R R Kelkar
Vijayanand said
Dear Sir,
Its vijayanand here. The rainfall over coastal karnataka has been very poor this year. Infact we have clocked just 39cms in june this year as against the average of 90 cms. Normally I browse http://www.weather.com to get accurate picture of clouds on Indian coast. The dense cloud mass is predominantly stationed to the west of karnataka coastline. Not sure why it isn’t moving east on to mangalore to karwar coastline. Is it because of the low pressure trough running parallel to the coastline and not getting closer enough. One more thing I have observed is the total absence of strong sustained winds from west.
Regards,
Vijayanand
Vijayanand said
Dear Sir,
When I was in USA we could get regular weather update on weather.com channel. Its infact a 24/7 weather channel. They used to provide live update on climate and weather. Is the Indian government also planning any such weather channel.
Moreover the same weather channel makes available the same data on their super sophiticated website http://www.weather.com. One can obtain data for Indian cities as well by just quering for the city on search tool. Unlike Indian website “http://www.imd.gov.in”, they show the density of the cloud mass. The densities are shown in different colours.
White Clouds : Overcast condition
Blackish Clods : Drizzle
Violet Clouds : Light rain
Orange Clouds : Heavy Rain along with thunder and lightning
Red Clouds: Very Heavy Rain along with thunder and lightning
If our domestic website can provide similar data it would be great. As of now I have no choice but to see the satellite image on weather.com and get a more accurate information. Sir, One can even download google earth and activate the weather data. It provides live data at a 6 hour interval. Please let me know whether our Indian website is likely to make itself as sophisticated as http://www.weather.com.
Regards,
Vijayanand
Jenendre Yadav said
Respected sir,
First of all, thanks for clearing my queries. Sir, as of now IMD has forecasted that s-w monsoon has covered the most of India i.e. 95% in exact by July 1st but the thing that is the real concern is the formation of low pressure over the Bay of Bengal which strengthens the inward flow of monsoon winds towards Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, U.P. etc. which is still absent. So, what could be the outlook for the rains in these areas since they are the food production house of the country? And, what could be the reasons which are preventing the formation of low over Bay of Bengal?
Le Thi Xuan Lan said
August 12th, 2009
Sir,
I would like to ask for your explanation about the characteristic of the onset of southwest monsoon over Indian and South China sea in 2008 and 2009
Thank you very much and I am looking forward to hear from you as soon as possible
Yours sincerely,
Le Thi Xuan Lan
Deputy Manager of Forecast Division
SRHMC, Vietnam
Tel: 84-8-38291403
Fax: 84-8-38296091
Email: letxlan09@yahoo.com
Prof R R Kelkar said
Dear Mr Lan,
I must thank you for visiting my blog.
I retired from the India Meteorological Department in 2003, and I am no longer engaged in active research nor do I have operational data. I am therefore not quite in a position to provide the explanation that you have sought.
Thanks and regards,
R R Kelkar
Pune, India
Kiorn Trivedi said
Sir,
Now I know why you are what you are. Your Blog was an inspiration to me. I hope I will be able to put in more consorted efforts to realize my dream.
Right now I am Enjoying the fall season in full swing. It can only be some one out of this world who can perform this miracle.
I am planning to be back in India by the end of Nov09. Istart my acivity as an observer at the SERC school on aviation met. at AFAC, Coimbatore.
Sincerely Yours,
Kiron Trivedi
subramani said
hello sir,
could you tell me , what is the reason for low rainfall in tamilnadu during south west monsoon,
Prof R R Kelkar said
Because it comes within the rain shadow area.