Kelkar Book Monsoon Prediction
Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed “the monsoon”.
The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.
Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.
This book, written by Prof R R Kelkar and published in December 2008, is not just yet another book on the monsoon in general, but it focuses on the problem of prediction. It discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.
The book is written in such a way that it would be useful to meteorologists and atmospheric scientists and other readers who may be interested in knowing more about monsoon prediction.
.
Vedang Apte said
Respected Sir
i have a small query about monsoon predictions and its failuers;
is it any time happend that due to non exsistence of monsoon drought like conditions have occured in INDIA? and if it has happend then what is the usual cycle of the monsoon?
thanking you,
Vedang Apte
Prof R R Kelkar said
Dear Vedang,
No, it has never happened that there was a “non-existence” of the monsoon, or when the monsoon failed to arrive at all. If you have a more specific question, feel free to ask.
Kelkar
Ravindra Khisti said
Respected Sir,
I have heard about one person in Nasik, who predicts perfectly about rain. The prediction is based on wind position & other conditions existing six months prior to monsoon. If suck kind of prediction is possible why our metrological department takes the observations & guide the farmers.
Regards,
Ravindra Khisti
Deepak Burkule said
Dear Sir,
What is the exact contribution of plantation in monsoon advancing process. We can understand /imagine the huge tall mountains obstructing the clouds and resulting in rain in surrounding area. But if the clouds /monsoon won’t reach that area what is the role of plantation and greenery in this case?
Thanks and Regards
Deepak Burkule
Prof R R Kelkar said
Dear Deepak,
I do not know your background and so I cannot give you an appropriate explanation on this blog. The monsoon operates on many different scales of time and space. There are local factors and global influences. If you are really interested in knowing more about the science of the monsoon, there are many books about it. The latest is my book entitled “Monsoon Prediction” which you may like to buy. The details are available on this blog.
Sincerely,
R R Kelkar