On 26 April 2012, the India Meteorological Department issued its long range forecasts for the 2012 southwest monsoon season (June to September) and these are as follows:

(a) Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be Normal (96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA) ) with the probability of 47%. The probability (24%) of season rainfall to be below normal (90-96% of LPA) is also higher than its climatological value. However, the probability of season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA) is relatively low (less than 10%).

(b) Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

On 15 May 2012, IMD announced that the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 1 June 2012 with a model error of ± 4 days.

According to IMD, the monsoon set in over Kerala on 5 June.

On 22 June 2012, IMD downgraded its seasonal rainfall forecast from 99% to 96% and also issued additional forecasts.

Full details are available at IMD’s web site http://www.imd.gov.in/

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