Much before the release of the Long Range Forecast for the 2013 Southwest Monsoon by the India Meteorological Department, several other early forecasts have become available.

Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd said on 18 April 2013 that India’s June-September 2013 monsoon rainfall is likely to be well-distributed and normal. In terms of probabilities, Skymet gave a 44 percent chance of a normal monsoon (96 percent to 104 percent of average) this year and as much chance of rains being above normal (including a 15 percent probability of excess rains, that is, above 110 percent). It said the probability of rains being below 96 percent of the average was 12 percent. The rain forecast for August is 97 percent of average and in September 103 percent. Details are available at http://www.skymet.net/reports.php

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-4) met at Kathmandu, Nepal, on 18-19 April 2013. In its consensus statement it said that the outlook for 2013 indicates that the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall for South Asia and the season (June – September) as a whole will most likely be within the normal range with a slight tendency towards the higher side of the normal range. The full statement is available online at http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/South%20Asian%20Climate%20Outlook%20Forum%20Consensus%20Statement.pdf

The ENSO Update issued on 4 April 2013 jointly by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society has indicated the continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the Northern Hemisphere autumn. The IRI multi-model probability forecast for May-July 2013 shows rainfall over India to be close to climatology. See http://portal.iri.columbia.edu

Well, so far so good!

 

 

 

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