Kelkar Book Monsoon Prediction


Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed “the monsoon”.

The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.

Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.

This book, written by Prof R R Kelkar and published in December 2008, is not just yet another book on the monsoon in general, but it focuses on the problem of prediction. It discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.

The book is written in such a way that it would be useful to meteorologists and atmospheric scientists and other readers who may be interested in knowing more about monsoon prediction.

ISBN 978 81 7800 185 2Pages 234 Price Rs 995
Publishers: BS Publications, Hyderabad
Email contactus@bspublications.net Phone 040 2344 5688 Fax 040 2344 5611
Author’s email kelkar_rr@yahoo.com
This is what Prof. G. C. Asnani, Former WMO Professor of Meteorology, has to say about the book “Monsoon Preediction”: The subject matter is very important, for students and teachers in the field of climate in general and Indian Monsoon in Particular. The author has held important positions including Director General of Meteorology in India, ISRO Space Chair Professor in University Of Pune, Representative of India in World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and elected member of WMO Executive Council. He has wide experience not only of senior scientific positions but also in the field of Numerical Weather Prediction, Operational Forecasting and teaching of meteorology. With rare combination of operations, research and teaching, the author has used this combination in writing a book which is useful to students, teachers and administrators handling decision-making, at very senior levels. I have had the good fortune of seeing him almost through his whole career in the field of Meteorology. Prof. Kelkar has made excellent presentation of Indian Monsoon against the general background of Global Monsoon. He has concisely dealt with not only the earlier work since the establishment of India Meteorological Department (1875) till the coming of computers in (1950) but also with the latest developments in computer modeling and concurrent development of ideas on climate change, El Nino, La Nino. ENSO, Madden-Julian oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation, North Pacific oscillation, Quasi-Biennial oscillation, Southern oscillation and ensemble modelling.The book should find the place in personal and public libraries of University students, University professors and administrators in the field of science and technology.


9 Comments (+add yours?)

    Jul 27, 2010 @ 11:26:50



    • Prof R R Kelkar
      Jul 28, 2010 @ 01:40:20

      Thanks and best wishes.

      R R Kelkar


  2. Pooja
    Dec 28, 2009 @ 18:36:14


    My research involves Indian Monsoon and agriculture in Tamil Nadu. I think your book ‘Monsoon Prediction’ can offer a wealth of knowledge under one book which I may obtain studying different papers. Can you suggest where I can buy the book online

    Thank You



    • Prof R R Kelkar
      Dec 29, 2009 @ 00:53:15

      Dear Pooja,

      Thank you for your interest in my book. I suggest that you send an email to the publisher, BS Publications, Hyderabad, at contactus@bspublications.net. Their phone number is 040 2344 5688 and fax number is 040 2344 5611.

      Best wishes for the New Year,

      R R Kelkar


  3. Deepak Burkule
    Aug 07, 2009 @ 03:52:21

    Dear Sir,

    What is the exact contribution of plantation in monsoon advancing process. We can understand /imagine the huge tall mountains obstructing the clouds and resulting in rain in surrounding area. But if the clouds /monsoon won’t reach that area what is the role of plantation and greenery in this case?

    Thanks and Regards

    Deepak Burkule


    • Prof R R Kelkar
      Aug 07, 2009 @ 05:14:08

      Dear Deepak,

      I do not know your background and so I cannot give you an appropriate explanation on this blog. The monsoon operates on many different scales of time and space. There are local factors and global influences. If you are really interested in knowing more about the science of the monsoon, there are many books about it. The latest is my book entitled “Monsoon Prediction” which you may like to buy. The details are available on this blog.


      R R Kelkar


  4. Ravindra Khisti
    Jul 01, 2009 @ 06:56:56

    Respected Sir,

    I have heard about one person in Nasik, who predicts perfectly about rain. The prediction is based on wind position & other conditions existing six months prior to monsoon. If suck kind of prediction is possible why our metrological department takes the observations & guide the farmers.


    Ravindra Khisti


  5. Vedang Apte
    Jun 25, 2009 @ 17:05:43

    Respected Sir

    i have a small query about monsoon predictions and its failuers;

    is it any time happend that due to non exsistence of monsoon drought like conditions have occured in INDIA? and if it has happend then what is the usual cycle of the monsoon?

    thanking you,

    Vedang Apte


    • Prof R R Kelkar
      Jun 26, 2009 @ 00:16:03

      Dear Vedang,

      No, it has never happened that there was a “non-existence” of the monsoon, or when the monsoon failed to arrive at all. If you have a more specific question, feel free to ask.



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