Rabindranath Tagore at Alipore

Rabindranath Tagore with P. C. Mahalanobis and Rani Mahalanobis at Alipore in 1926

It is not commonly known that Rabindranath Tagore, who is often called the monsoon poet, had indeed written some of his poems at the Alipore Observatory in Kolkata,  where he often lived as a guest of the meteorologist, Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis in the years 1923 to 1926.

Tagore had been encouraging Mahalanobis to pursue statistics, which he in fact did. The India Meteorological Department lost Mahalanobis as he left meteorology and went on to do pioneering and fundamental work in statistics and later established the Indian Statistical Institute at Kolkata in 1931.

Mahalanobis had a close and lasting relationship with Tagore. For several years, he served as the General Secretary of Tagore’s Viswa Bharati University at Shantiniketan. He and his wife, Nirmal Kumari, known affectionately as Rani Mahalanobis, regularly played hosts to Tagore at their official residence on the first floor of the Alipore Observatory building. Tagore had a room for himself, but he preferred the shade of the giant banyan tree that it overlooked, under which he sat and penned his literary masterpieces. It was in the fitness of things, that Rabindranath Tagore, the Monsoon Poet, drew his inspiration from clouds and rain in the campus of a meteorological observatory! Tagore’s room at Alipore has now been converted into a small museum which houses some of his memorabilia and the banyan tree continues to stand at the hallowed spot in homage to his memory.

A rare photograph of Rabindranath Tagore with Prasanta Chandra and Nirmal Kumari Mahalanobis sitting under the banyan tree at Alipore Observatory is given at the top of this post. The photograph was taken in 1926 and has been digitally enhanced.

– R. R. Kelkar

Filmy Weather (10): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

On 27 July 2005 at 8:30 am, the observatory at Santa Cruz in north Mumbai recorded a rainfall of 94.4 cm during the previous 24 hours, while the Colaba observatory in Mumbai’s southern tip recorded barely 7.3 cm in the same period. Rainfall over Vihar lake was 105 cm, even higher than Santa Cruz. The previous record of heaviest 24-hour rainfall over Mumbai was 58 cm for Santa Cruz and 37 cm for Colaba on 5 July 1974. Comparatively speaking, only Santa Cruz broke the previous record, but for Colaba the rainfall was in no way unusual. However, the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005, as it is now referred to by meteorologists, was unusual in that it affected life in the metropolis in a never-before manner. Hundreds of people lost their lives, drowned by the deluge, fatally trapped in cars, electrocuted, or caught in the debris of collapsing buildings. The rains literally brought the city which never sleeps, to a standstill.

Meteorologists know that such phenomena do occur once in a way and they are called extreme events. But this was perhaps the most extreme of extreme events and it generated an extreme reaction among meteorologists, primarily because it had not been predicted. They held seminars, workshops and brainstorming sessions to analyse every aspect of the situation and to see if the event could somehow have been predicted or if a similar future occurrence could possibly be predicted. Climate change enthusiasts seized it as another opportunity to reinforce their claim that the climate has changed. Environmentalists blamed it all on the neglect of the environment.

It is now the turn of the moviemakers to take a look at the Mumbai rains from their own viewpoint. The Hindi film, Tum Mile, was to have been released on the fourth anniversary of the Mumbai rain event, but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009 when Mumbai had just been recovering from its brush with cyclone Phyan, which thankfully did not cause much damage or loss of life and had dissipated quickly.

Tum Mile begins with a shot of the campus of the University of Cape Town where Sanjana (Soha Ali Khan), is campaigning enthusiastically about the environment and climate change. Just when she is beginning to attract an audience, there is a sudden sharp shower that disperses the listeners and drowns her hopes as well. But in the background is Akshay (Emraan Hashmi), an aspiring painter, who falls in love with her at first sight. The film is full of flashbacks, but if the story is to be straightened out, it is just that their love grows, they decide to live together, and are generally happy, but when it comes to marriage, things begin to break apart and Sanjana and Akshay go their own ways. Six years later, they meet each other by coincidence on a flight to Mumbai, and by coincidence again the day they land in Mumbai happens to be 26 July 2005, the day of the deluge. At Mumbai airport they part ways to do what they have come to Mumbai to do. But they are both stuck in the rains and they do not reach their destinations. Instead they meet on the streets of Mumbai, wade through waist-deep water, rescue other people, and save themselves out of impossible situations. By the time morning breaks, they have rediscovered their lives and their love and stand wondering why they had ever separated at all.

The film begins with the usual disclaimer that the characters in the film are fictitious and that any resemblances are coincidental, etc. But there were two things that struck me hard while watching Tum Mile. One was that throughout the film, which had quite a lot of actual and make-believe footage, it appeared that people in Mumbai on that dreadful day, were fighting their battle with nature almost on their own. There were hardly any shots of the police, fire brigade, or ambulances in action or even in the background.

But apart from that, what struck me more was the perception of the story writer and the director of the film about the meteorological office. In fact, the opening shot of Tum Mile is that of what it called the “Weather Department (Mumbai)”. It shows the staff on duty busy playing carom. The place is dimly lit, but there are computer screens flashing data and images in bright colours. What could be a satellite picture shows an ominous cloud formation. One of the duty staff notices it when he happens to pass by the computer screen, but the others tell him not to worry but concentrate on their game of carom. There is a suggestion of informing the airport, but the idea is dropped. The day would be just another rainy day for Mumbai and nothing unusual was going to happen, is what they all feel. There is a second shot of the “Weather Department (Mumbai)” later in the film, in which the staff is taking a fresh look at the images and data. They are now shown to be amazed by what they see and there is a talk about giving a warning, But by that time, it is too late.

Yes, the legal disclaimer in the film says that any resemblances are purely coincidental, but it would be worthwhile for meteorologists to ponder about what people think of them and their forecasts in today’s world with its advanced technology, apart from the jokes and cartoons that have always been there about them.

– R R Kelkar

22 November 2009

Filmy Weather (9): Tum Mile, Love in the Time of Rain

The Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005 spawned several investigations by meteorologists, particularly modellers, to find out the reasons behind this most extreme of extreme events, and to attempt to somehow predict it even in hindsight. It is now the turn of moviemakers to take up this event and make a different kind of story out of it.

“Tum Mile” is a new Hindi movie based upon the Mumbai rain event of 26 July 2005. It was to be released on its fourth anniversary but the release got postponed to 13 November 2009. As chance would have it, while I am writing this blog on 11 November, Mumbai is under the threat of a cyclone and is already experiencing heavy rains! So the postponed movie release is also well-timed!

“Tum Mile”, directed by Kunal Deshmukh, stars Emraan Hashmi and Soha Ali Khan in lead roles. The story is about two ex-lovers who meet again after a gap of six years. They happen to be on the same flight back to Mumbai, and get there only to see the city going through its worst times, with the highest rainfall in history, and they are forced to stick together in this time of crisis. As the metropolis copes with its nightmare, they also struggle with their own situation, and come to terms with their own lives.

R. R. Kelkar

11 November 2009

Filmy Weather (8): Chocolate, introducimg a Sweet Young Monsoon

“Chocolate” is a Hindi movie that was released in 2005. It is a crime thriller, and is said to be a copy of the Hollywood movie “Usual Suspects”. It begins with an explosion in a motor boat that shatters a peaceful Christmas eve in London. This is followed by a daring robbery from an armoured vehicle carrying twenty billion pounds. The police suspect two Indians, Pipi (Irrfan Khan) and Sim (Tanushree Dutta) and they are subjected to intense interrogation. A crime journalist (Sushma Reddy in her debut performance) comes to know about their plight, meets them, and persuades her boyfriend-lawyer Krish (Anil Kapoor) to take up their case. Krish makes Pipi and Sim tell him the truth and they do that in bits and pieces which eventually fit into place like in a jig-saw puzzle.

I have been writing a series of posts, under the category Filmy Weather, about Indian films that had something to do with weather. “Chocolate” does not fall into this category. But I am writing this post because of something that struck me most – the crime journalist. No, not her role but her name. Guess what? The journalist’s name was Miss Monsoon Iyer! That was perhaps the sweetest bite of the chocolate!

Total Solar Eclipse and Drought over Bihar

Can there be even a remote connection between a solar eclipse and a drought? Not by any imagination, but the recent total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 seems to have resulted in the present drought over Bihar, if one is to believe in a statement attributed to Lalu Prasad Yadav (Times of India, Pune, 19 August 2009).

Lalu has been reported to have blamed Nitish Kumar’s contempt for age-old traditions for the drought in the state and said that it is a divine curse invited by him. As per Hindu belief, eatables should be shunned during the period of the solar eclipse, but Nitish Kumar, when he was in Taregna, 35 km from Patna, had eaten some biscuits while watching the eclipse and it was because of this sin that the rain god deprived the state of the gift of rain.

This accusation has already been rejected by Nitish Kumar (PTI News, 16 August 2009) who said that he did not believe in superstitions, and he asked a counter-question that if it were so, then why were other states facing drought?

The media reports make an interesting story, but that is all to it!

Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in ‘Scholars Without Borders’

‘Scholars Without Borders’ is a site maintained by a group of academics based in New Delhi, and teaching and studying at Jawaharlal Nehru University. They give news about academic books published in India. It carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

“This is a good book to have had this summer… maybe. As the monsoon remains elusive and I sit sweltering in the Delhi heat and humidity, a book who’s title caught my eye is R R Kelkar’s Monsoon Prediction, from B S Publications, Hyderabad.

“Describing the book, Professor Kelkar says ‘The monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either, being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically challenging task.’

“He should know. Having retired as Director General of the Meterological Department, Kelkar has written a book on Satellite Meterology as well. ‘Monsoons are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music. The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed the monsoon.

“The book discusses the current state of art of monsoon prediction, the present and future user requirements, the inherent limitations of science, and why monsoon prediction is a worthwhile scientific effort that needs to be pursued. It covers the different techniques of monsoon prediction on various space and time scales, ranging from mesoscale rainfall to the behaviour of the monsoon across the 21st century.

“.…. Today, with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however, is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not necessarily imply our ability to predict it.”

“Point taken.”

Filmy Weather (7): Tya Ratri Paus Hota, a Night of Artificial Rain

“Tya Ratri Paus Hota” is a Marathi film released very recently in 2009. The title translated literally would mean ‘it rained that night’. It is not, however, the story of just one long rainy night. In fact, nothing much happens during the night except towards the climax.

The rainy night brings together by chance Avinash (Subodh Bhave) and Raavi (Amruta Subhash), brother and sister, after many long years of separation. Earlier in their childhood, the two children and their father Vishwas (Sandeep Mehta) and mother Gayatri (Sonali Kulkarni) have been a happy family. But there is a villain in the story, politician Shripatrao (Sayaji Shinde), a man of evil designs. He falsely implicates Vishwas and gets him sent him to jail. When Gayatri seeks his help to get her husband released, he agrees but makes her pay a heavy price for this favour. Vishwas is furious when he comes to know of it, and unaware of the fact that what Gayatri did was only for his sake, he leaves home with Avi, and Raavi is left with Gayatri.

When Avi and Ravee meet on that rainy night, they exchange the half-truths that they had known and lived with, and the real and complete truth emerges. By that time it is morning and the movie ends on a ray of hope.

Unlike most other rain-soaked movies, thunder and lightning are conspicuous by their absence in “Tya Ratri Paus Hota”. The film does begin with a scene shot in a heavy downpour, but the rain continues in the form of intermittent showers, some of them heavy, to use the meteorologist’s language. Rains are also a part of some of the flashback scenes, and the songs speak of overcast skies and cloudbursts. However, there are no particularly good natural shots of rain that would justify the title of the film. What we see is mostly water trickling down the roofs, or rainwater drenched in blue light, or car headlights beaming through the rain.

The story attempts to revive memories washed away in floods and long forgotten. It has flashbacks of happiness drowned in cloudbursts of lust, greed and exploitation. “Tya Ratri Paus Hota” is more like a night of artificial rain that the story could even have done without!

R R Kelkar

Book Review of “Monsoon Prediction” by R. R. Kelkar in Current Science

The 25 June 2009 issue (Vol 96, No. 12) of Current Science carries this review of the book “Monsoon Prediction” by Prof. R. R. Kelkar:

The history of monsoon prediction in India dates back to 1886. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has the distinction of being the first national weather service in the world to start the operational monsoon prediction work. It all started in 1886, when Blanford used the relationship between winter Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon for predicting the ensuing monsoon rainfall. Sir Gilbert Walker, in 1910s and 1920s, initiated high-quality research in understanding the monsoon variability and development of statistical models. Since then, meteorologists have been working relentlessly to understand and predict Indian monsoon variability and numerous research papers have been published on this important topic. Many reviews have also been published. Monsoon prediction is now a challenging research area with plenty of scope and opportunity. However, we did not have a good compilation of all the results pertaining to monsoon prediction research. The book under review fills this gap. The author, R. R. Kelkar, who served IMD for more than 35 years was also responsible for operational monsoon prediction in IMD. He has used his rich experience in shaping this useful book. The book also includes a critical analysis of our prediction capability and its future scope and opportunities.

The book contains six chapters, describing the major components of the monsoon, global and regional teleconnections, different methods of seasonal monsoon prediction, characteristics of intra-seasonal variations and prediction, projection of monsoon in the 21st century and finally, problems and prospects associated with monsoon prediction.

The first chapter describes different ways of defining a monsoon, monsoon regions, and major climatological features of the Indian monsoon. There are many ways of defining a monsoon. But for the Indians, it is the annual cycle of rains over the country. Monsoon theories included the simple land–sea breeze theory to a complex theory that involves the atmosphere, land and ocean. Indian monsoon variability is influenced by many components of the global climate system. They are known as teleconnection patterns, linking the Indian monsoon variability to major climate anomalies around the world such as Eurasian snow cover and snow depth, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies over the Indian and Atlantic oceans, and land surface temperature anomalies.

In the second chapter, various monsoon teleconnection patterns are discussed. Teleconnections with ENSO and snow cover are probably studied more and are discussed in detail. However, a detailed discussion on the role of Indian Ocean climate anomalies (Indian Ocean Dipole and EQUINOO) on Indian monsoon is missing. The relationship between sunspot activity and Indian monsoon is a research area with some renewed interest.

In India, statistical models are extensively used for monsoon prediction (long-range forecast). Most of these statistical models are based on the same principles used by Gilbert Walker in 1920s. IMD now uses an updated statistical model for issuing operational long range forecasts based on the ensemble technique. Chapter 3 discusses the details of these statistical models, including the parameters used in the model. The models include simple linear regression, discriminant models for probability distributions and the latest ensemble method based on projection pursuit regression.

Prediction of the quantum of rainfall during the whole season (seasonal prediction) is useful for planning purposes. However, for the farmers, prediction on intra-seasonal timescales (for example, 15–20 days) is more relevant for their day-to-day operations. Similarly, prediction of intra-seasonal activities such as onset and withdrawal, and the active–break cycles of the Indian monsoon is crucial for agricultural planning. However, little work has been done on this important area. Prediction of various monsoon intra-seasonal elements is discussed in Chapter 4. This is an emerging area of research both in India and abroad. This chapter also includes a brief discussion on the use of atmospheric and coupled general circulation models for seasonal monsoon prediction.

In the particular context of climate change due to global warming, it is important to know the future projections of the Indian monsoon. Chapter 5 discusses the projection of the Indian monsoon behaviour in the 21st century. The chapter starts with a discussion on the observed climate change over India using instrumental datasets, followed by future emission scenarios and climate projections. Even though there is no appreciable trend in the quantum of monsoon rainfall averaged over the country, there are significant trends in monsoon rainfall over different parts of the country. Also, there are temporal changes during the monsoon season. Most of the current climate models indicate that monsoon rainfall would increase in future climate. However, there are many uncertainties in the climate model projections. Most of the current climate models are unable to simulate the observed features of the Indian monsoon in their totality. It is important to understand and appreciate these uncertainties in the global climate models in interpreting and using the future climate-change projections.

In the final chapter, the problems and prospects of monsoon prediction are discussed. There are known limitations of the statistical models, like secular variations of correlation, choice of optimum number of predictors and training period, etc. However, in spite of these known constraints, statistical models continue to be popular for several reasons. The users, while interpreting forecasts from these statistical models, should understand and appreciate the limitations of these models. There are other issues like the definition of all-India summer monsoon rainfall (averaged over the whole country and whole season from 1 June to 30 September), changes in the global teleconnection patterns, especially with ENSO. Statistical models cannot be used for prediction on much smaller spatial and temporal scales. For this specific need, we have to use dynamical models. The future prospects of monsoon prediction are completely dependent on the skill of advanced dynamical models, which showed an improvement in the model skill over the recent years. Specifically, monsoon field experiments and Indian climate research programmes will improve our understanding of the monsoon variability and thus monsoon prediction.

This book is specifically designed on monsoon prediction as it discusses the current state-of-the-art of monsoon prediction, its problems and prospects. It provides a critical analysis on how good we are in monsoon prediction and what are its future prospects in the context of improvement in dynamical models and monsoon field experiments. The book contains a good compilation of useful and updated references at the end of each chapter. The book will be useful to meteorologists, especially operational forecasters and students in meteorology and anyone interested in knowing more about monsoon prediction.

- M. RAJEEVAN

Kalidasa – Kavee kee Shastradnya

An article in Marathi by Prof R R Kelkar entitled “Kalidasa – Kavee kee Shastradnya” was published in the Marathi newspaper “Sakal” from Pune on 23 June 2009.

Click here to read

Kalidasa: The Poet with a Scientist’s Mind

“Meghadoot”, meaning the Cloud Messenger, is a Sanskrit poem of 120 stanzas or slokas, composed by the poet Kalidasa. Briefly, the poem is about a yaksha, who is banished from Alakapuri, takes refuge in Ramgiri, shares his sorrow with a cloud, and requests the cloud to go and tell his beloved in Alakapuri that he is safe. However, Kalidasa has developed this simple theme into a great literary masterpiece of unparalleled beauty. Even after a passage of 1600 years since it was written, Meghadoot continues to captivate the minds of its readers. Rabindranath Tagore, Madhav Julian, Kusumagraj, Shanta Shelke, and many literary stalwarts have translated Meghadoot from Sanskrit into other Indian languages. Kalidasa’s descriptions are so picturesque, that artists have been inspired to paint Meghadoot sloka by sloka. Its translations into several foreign languages have been posted on the internet.

It is said that a poet can see what even the sun does not. There are no limits to a poet’s imagination. Meghadoot, however, stands a class apart from other great poetry, as Kalidasa’s flight of fantasy transcends into the realm of real science which we know today as meteorology. It would be futile to conjecture how or from whom Kalidasa might have acquired his scientific knowledge. Perhaps nature herself was his teacher!

The very first sloka of Meghadoot paints before us a picture of a yaksha, meaning a servant, exiled from his home in Alakapuri, now living in a far away place called Ramgiri, lonely, broken-hearted and worn out, pained by the separation from his beloved. He is counting the remaining days of his sentence. And on the first day of the month of Ashadha, he suddenly notices a cloud, standing alone atop the mountain peak of Ramgiri (“Ashadhasya prathama divase”…sloka 1.1).

Historians are in general agreement that the town presently called Ramtek, near Nagpur, is the location of Kalidasa’s Ramgiri, while Alakapuri might have been in north India somewhere in the Himalayan foothills. It is important to note that the average date of the arrival of the monsoon over the Ramtek region in 400 A. D. was indeed the same as it is today. This is a reassuring fact, particularly in the context of climate change and the doubts that are being expressed about the changes in the monsoon patterns.

Now imagine that Kalidasa’s solitary cloud is standing proudly over the mountain top, overlooking the region around it, announcing the arrival of the monsoon rains to a population that has been suffering from the scorching heat of the prolonged summer. This cloud is spearheading the monsoon front, making sure that the way ahead is clear for the advance of the monsoon. The yaksha looks at this cloud which has such a heavy responsibility (1.3) and pleads with him to undertake an additional task of carrying a message to his beloved (1.4).

The yaksha knows that the cloud is made up of four ingredients: water, wind, electricity and smoke (“Dhoomra jyoti salila marutam sannipatah kva meghah…” 1.5). He is well aware of the different forms of clouds (1.6). Moreover, he also knows that the northern town of Alakapuri, where his beloved is, lies in the path of the monsoon clouds (“Gantavya te vasatiralaka…” 1.7). Today it is known that smoke consists of two types of carbon, organic and black, of which the former helps in cloud formation and the latter absorbs heat. The role of black carbon in global warming is however not yet fully understood. It is mindboggling that Kalidasa should have known about cloud processes in such detail in his times.

In today’s satellite era, it is possible to monitor globally the growth, movement and dissipation of clouds. The average life time of a typical monsoon cloud is at best a few hours. When Kalidasa’s yaksha asked the cloud to go with his message all the way from Ramgiri in central India to Alakapuri in the Himalayan foothills, he seems to be quite aware of this fact. He was sure that one single cloud would not be able to sustain itself along this long journey. So he finds a scientific solution to the problem. He advises the cloud to rest awhile over the several rivers that would have to be crossed on the way and get rejuvenated (“Neetva neelam salilavasanam muktarodhonitambam…” 1.43). The rivers mentioned are Vetravati (1.24), Shipra (1.31), Gambhira (1.42), Ganga (1.53) and others. It is obvious that Kalidasa envisaged a process in which the evaporation from the surface of these large rivers would help in cloud formation and development. Kalidasa’s poetic fantasy and scientific logic go hand in hand to help fulfill the yaksha’s desire. Little research has however been done since Kalidasa’s times till today on how the monsoon is influenced by the rivers that crisscross the Indian subcontinent.

The yaksha thereafter lays down the itinerary of the cloud. He wants the cloud to visit places like Vidisha, Ujjayini and Devgiri, which have great beauty and with which he has strong emotional bonds. He describes them in picturesque detail and entices the cloud to see them. But here again the scientist prevails over the poet and he says that the monsoon winds will surely carry the cloud to the destination (“Mandam mandam nudati pavanaschanukulam yatha twam…” 1.10). The monsoon winds will slowly turn westwards (“Kinchit paschadvraja laghugatirbhuya evottarena…” 1.16). The yaksha is acquainted with the circuitous route of the monsoon and he repeatedly cautions that the cloud must always keep moving to the north (“Vakra pantha yadapi bhavatah prasthitasyottarasham…” 1.27).

At many places, the yaksha tells the cloud to gain height in order to move faster, again suggesting that Kalidasa was aware of the fact that the monsoon winds gathered strength with height, while phenomena such as the tropical easterly jet and the low level jet were discovered by meteorologists only in the last century.

We do not yet have a precise definition of a typical monsoon cloud. But monsoon clouds over northern India are taller than those over peninsular India and are associated with thunder and lightning. At the end of the poem, the yaksha wishes that the cloud and his beloved, the lightning, may never get separated (“Ma bhudevam kshanamapi cha te vidyuta viprayogah…” 2.55).

Kalidasa’s Meghadootam is not only a poem of great beauty but an accurate scientific statement about the monsoon clouds and winds. What Kalidasa wrote about the monsoon 1600 years ago, can be said to be scientifically sound by today’s standards. In some respects, Kalidasa remains ahead of the scientists of the twentyfirst century and they can learn from him and draw inspiration for doing further research in the monsoon.

Prof. R. R. Kelkar
Kalidasa Day, 23 June 2009